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Tropical Depression Ten-E Forecast Discussion Number 7
2020-08-14 22:54:39| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 200 PM PDT Fri Aug 14 2020 000 WTPZ45 KNHC 142054 TCDEP5 Tropical Depression Ten-E Discussion Number 7 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP102020 200 PM PDT Fri Aug 14 2020 ASCAT-B data valid around 1900 UTC showed max winds a little higher than 30 kt associated with the rain-free circulation of the depression. However, since that time, the convective structure of the cyclone has degraded substantially and if it was previously producing winds of tropical-storm-force, it likely no longer is doing so at this time. Therefore, the initial intensity for this advisory is held at 30 kt. Only minor fluctuations in the intensity and structure of the depression are expected for the next 3 days due to strong northeasterly wind shear. Assuming the system doesn't dissipate at some point during that period of time, the upper-level winds could become less hostile early next week. The dynamical guidance generally indicates that the tropical cyclone will hang on and modest strengthening is possible early next week. No changes were made to the NHC intensity forecast, which closely follows the multi-model consensus. Likewise, only minor adjustments were made to the NHC track forecast. The depression is still forecast to meander for the next 5 days, initially west-southwestward to westward, then northwestward over the weekend. The strength of a low- to mid-level ridge to the north of the cyclone is the primary factor in the steering flow. While there are slight variations from model to model on the speed and heading of the tropical cyclone, they all agree that it won't move much through the early portion of next week, and possibly even beyond that. The NHC forecast essentially splits the difference between the previous official forecast, HCCA, and TVCE. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 14/2100Z 13.5N 132.7W 30 KT 35 MPH 12H 15/0600Z 13.3N 133.1W 30 KT 35 MPH 24H 15/1800Z 13.2N 133.4W 30 KT 35 MPH 36H 16/0600Z 13.4N 133.8W 30 KT 35 MPH 48H 16/1800Z 13.8N 134.2W 30 KT 35 MPH 60H 17/0600Z 14.2N 134.5W 30 KT 35 MPH 72H 17/1800Z 14.5N 135.1W 30 KT 35 MPH 96H 18/1800Z 14.6N 135.7W 35 KT 40 MPH 120H 19/1800Z 14.5N 136.5W 35 KT 40 MPH $$ Forecaster Zelinsky [ more ]
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