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Tropical Depression Ten-E Graphics
2024-09-23 04:42:00| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Mon, 23 Sep 2024 02:42:00 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Mon, 23 Sep 2024 03:24:07 GMT
Category:Transportation and Logistics
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Tropical Depression Ten-E Forecast Discussion Number 2
2024-09-23 04:34:08| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 900 PM CST Sun Sep 22 2024 000 WTPZ45 KNHC 230233 TCDEP5 Tropical Depression Ten-E Discussion Number 2 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP102024 900 PM CST Sun Sep 22 2024 Satellite images show that the depression is gradually becoming better organized, with some convective banding features developing around the circulation and a small area of very cold cloud tops over the estimated center. Upper-level outflow is fairly well defined over the southern semicircle of the system. Subjective Dvorak classifications from both TAFB and SAB indicate a T-number of 2.0, so the advisory intensity is held at 30 kt for now. Center fixes indicate little movement since earlier today, so the initial motion estimate is nearly stationary. As noted earlier, the track forecast for this tropical cyclone is quite problematic, with a large spread in the guidance models. The regional hurricane models are generally east of the global guidance, with the ECMWF on the western side of the model tracks. The most recent run of the GFS takes the cyclone inland in a couple of days but later develops one or two new centers offshore. Since the dominant steering mechanism seems to be the Central American Gyre, the official track forecast shows a mainly east-northeastward motion during the forecast period, along the southern periphery of the Gyre. This track moves the center close to the southern coast of Mexico for several days before making landfall, and lies between the simple and corrected dynamical model consensus predictions. During most of the forecast period, the system should remain over very warm waters with low vertical wind shear and in a moist low- to mid-level air mass. Therefore strengthening is likely, and the official intensity forecast is similar to the statistical-dynamical LGEM guidance. One major source of uncertainty in the forecast is how much the system interacts with land during the next few days. Given the favorable environment, it is possible that the system could become a hurricane before landfall. Interests along the coast of southern Mexico should closely monitor the latest forecast updates for this system. A Hurricane Watch could be required for a portion of the coast now covered by a Tropical Storm Watch. KEY MESSAGES: 1. Slow-moving Tropical Depression Ten-E will bring very heavy rainfall to coastal portions of southwest Mexico through the upcoming week. This heavy rainfall will likely cause significant and possibly catastrophic, life-threatening flash flooding and mudslides to the Mexican States of Chiapas, Oaxaca, and southeast Guerrero, particularly in areas near the coast. 2. The depression is forecast to become a tropical storm later tonight or on Monday. A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for a portion of the coastline of southern Mexico, where tropical storm conditions could begin on Tuesday. 3. The system could strengthen more than forecast depending on how long it remains over water. Interests along the coast of southern Mexico should monitor the latest forecast updates, as a Hurricane Watch could be required for a portion of the coastline later tonight or on Monday. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 23/0300Z 13.9N 98.6W 30 KT 35 MPH 12H 23/1200Z 14.3N 98.3W 35 KT 40 MPH 24H 24/0000Z 14.6N 97.9W 45 KT 50 MPH 36H 24/1200Z 15.0N 97.1W 50 KT 60 MPH 48H 25/0000Z 15.2N 96.3W 55 KT 65 MPH 60H 25/1200Z 15.6N 95.2W 55 KT 65 MPH 72H 26/0000Z 16.3N 94.1W 45 KT 50 MPH...INLAND 96H 27/0000Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Pasch
Category: Transportation and Logistics
Tropical Depression Ten-E Wind Speed Probabilities Number 2
2024-09-23 04:33:35| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 0300 UTC MON SEP 23 2024 000 FOPZ15 KNHC 230233 PWSEP5 TROPICAL DEPRESSION TEN-E WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 2 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP102024 0300 UTC MON SEP 23 2024 AT 0300Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION TEN-E WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 13.9 NORTH...LONGITUDE 98.6 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 30 KTS...35 MPH...55 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) PACIFIC DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT 7 HOURS FROM Z TIME HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 00Z MON AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 00Z MON 12Z MON 00Z TUE 12Z TUE 00Z WED 00Z THU 00Z FRI PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 12Z MON 00Z TUE 12Z TUE 00Z WED 00Z THU 00Z FRI 00Z SAT FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT 15N 100W 34 X 3( 3) 1( 4) 1( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) ACAPULCO 34 X 1( 1) 1( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) P MALDONADO 34 X 4( 4) 3( 7) 1( 8) 1( 9) X( 9) X( 9) P ANGEL 34 X 6( 6) 18(24) 12(36) 6(42) X(42) X(42) P ANGEL 50 X X( X) 3( 3) 2( 5) 2( 7) X( 7) X( 7) P ANGEL 64 X X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) X( 1) X( 1) X( 1) HUATULCO 34 X X( X) 5( 5) 5(10) 4(14) X(14) X(14) 15N 95W 34 X 1( 1) 6( 7) 16(23) 21(44) X(44) X(44) 15N 95W 50 X X( X) 1( 1) 4( 5) 8(13) X(13) X(13) 15N 95W 64 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) X( 3) X( 3) SALINA CRUZ 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 8( 9) X( 9) X( 9) $$ FORECASTER PASCH
Category: Transportation and Logistics