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Tropical Depression Ten Forecast Discussion Number 2
2021-08-28 16:36:14| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 1100 AM AST Sat Aug 28 2021 000 WTNT45 KNHC 281436 TCDAT5 Tropical Depression Ten Discussion Number 2 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL102021 1100 AM AST Sat Aug 28 2021 First light visible imagery shows that the rather disorganized surface center is exposed near the western edge of the cloud mass. The associated deep convection has been diminishing during the past 6 hours due to the stiff west-northwesterly shear and a rather parched surrounding thermodynamic environment. The initial intensity is held at 30 kt, consistent with the Dvorak satellite intensity estimates from TAFB and SAB and the 1156 UTC METOP-A scatterometer pass. The statistical SHIPS intensity guidance shows that the shear should decrease somewhat tonight and into Sunday, which should allow for some strengthening. By Monday, the aforementioned model, along with the deterministic guidance, indicates an increase in the shear magnitude and even lower mid- tropospheric relative humidity values, which should cap further strengthening and weaken the cyclone back to a depression through the remainder of the forecast period. There's more agreement in the large-scale models this morning indicating that the depression will degenerate into a remnant low toward the end of the week, and the NHC forecast follows suit. This is the only change from the previous advisory, and the NHC intensity forecast closely resembles the skilled IVCN and HCCA intensity consensus aids. The initial motion is estimated to be northward, or 350/7 kt. The depression is embedded in low- to mid-level southerly flow produced by a mid-Atlantic trough stretching from the northeast Atlantic to the central tropical Atlantic. This feature, along with a subtropical ridge situated over the east Atlantic and western Africa, should steer the depression generally toward the north through the 5-day period. The official track forecast has been nudged to the right of the previous advisory beyond day 3, and is close to the TVCN and NOAA HCCA multimodel guidance. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 28/1500Z 14.8N 50.0W 30 KT 35 MPH 12H 29/0000Z 15.7N 50.2W 30 KT 35 MPH 24H 29/1200Z 17.1N 50.1W 35 KT 40 MPH 36H 30/0000Z 18.6N 50.0W 35 KT 40 MPH 48H 30/1200Z 20.1N 49.7W 30 KT 35 MPH 60H 31/0000Z 21.4N 49.4W 30 KT 35 MPH 72H 31/1200Z 22.7N 49.4W 30 KT 35 MPH 96H 01/1200Z 25.4N 50.6W 30 KT 35 MPH 120H 02/1200Z 28.6N 51.6W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW $$ Forecaster Roberts
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