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Tropical Depression Ten Forecast Discussion Number 3
2020-08-01 10:32:46| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 800 AM CVT Sat Aug 01 2020 000 WTNT45 KNHC 010832 TCDAT5 Tropical Depression Ten Discussion Number 3 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL102020 800 AM CVT Sat Aug 01 2020 Satellite images indicate that only a small area of deep convection remains with the depression, and the center is partially exposed on the southeastern edge of the thunderstorms. The initial wind speed is kept 30 kt based on persistence. It seems like the chance for the depression to become a tropical storm has passed with it now moving over cooler waters into a drier air mass. Thus weakening is forecast, and the system will likely degenerate into a remnant low later today. The depression continues moving northwestward, and that course should persist today before turning towards the west-northwest around a larger cyclonic gyre on Sunday. A slight northward adjustment has been made to the forecast, a bit south of the GFS model. All of the model guidance dissipate the small low within 36 hours, so this is indicated in the new forecast. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 01/0900Z 17.8N 21.6W 30 KT 35 MPH 12H 01/1800Z 19.2N 23.2W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 24H 02/0600Z 20.5N 26.0W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 36H 02/1800Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Blake
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