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Tropical Depression Thirteen-E Forecast Discussion Number 1
2019-09-12 16:52:56| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 900 AM MDT Thu Sep 12 2019 582 WTPZ43 KNHC 121452 TCDEP3 Tropical Depression Thirteen-E Discussion Number 1 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP132019 Issued by the NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD 900 AM MDT Thu Sep 12 2019 An overnight scatterometer pass depicted an elongated circulation associated with this disturbance. Recent satellite imagery suggest the system has likely become better organized since the scatterometer, as can be seen in better defined curved banding features. Thus all indications are that a tropical depression has developed, with an initial intensity estimate of 30 kt derived from TAFB/SAB fixes. The depression has an initial motion off to the west-northwest around 11 kt. There is good agreement on the track over the next couple of days, with the system continuing a west to west-northwest movement to the south of a mid-level ridge situated over Mexico into the eastern Pacific. A bit more uncertainty develops by early next week with regards to how the system potentially interacts with a weakness in the ridge. While the track is of less confidence by this time, what does appear more certain is that the system should move more slowly. The NHC forecast track generally stays close to the model consensus. Tropical Depression Thirteen is expected to remain within a favorable environment for intensification over the next several days, with minimal shear and SSTs between 27-29 deg C. Model guidance is in good agreement that the system should become a tropical storm within a day, and a hurricane over the weekend. There is some chance we see a more rapid intensification of the cyclone during the next few days, with respectable rapid intensification probabilities noted in the SHIPS guidance. For now, since it is unknown how much of an inner core will develop, the forecast will be a bit more conservative, but above the model consensus intensity. Some weakening is expected by early next week as the system moves over cooler waters. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 12/1500Z 15.9N 111.1W 30 KT 35 MPH 12H 13/0000Z 16.3N 112.8W 35 KT 40 MPH 24H 13/1200Z 16.5N 114.8W 40 KT 45 MPH 36H 14/0000Z 16.7N 116.7W 50 KT 60 MPH 48H 14/1200Z 17.0N 118.4W 60 KT 70 MPH 72H 15/1200Z 17.9N 122.0W 75 KT 85 MPH 96H 16/1200Z 18.8N 124.8W 65 KT 75 MPH 120H 17/1200Z 19.5N 126.0W 50 KT 60 MPH $$ Forecaster Chenard/Blake
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