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Tropical Depression Three-E Forecast Discussion Number 5

2020-06-25 16:36:08| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)

Issued at 500 AM HST Thu Jun 25 2020 000 WTPZ43 KNHC 251436 TCDEP3 Tropical Depression Three-E Discussion Number 5 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP032020 500 AM HST Thu Jun 25 2020 Convection has increased some this morning near the center of Tropical Depression 3-E, although the convective bands are poorly organized. The initial intensity remains 30 kt in agreement with satellite intensity estimates from SAB and TAFB, along with scatterometer data from several hours ago. Although the depression has not intensified since yesterday, the intensity guidance suggests that the window for strengthening is open for about another 12-24 h. So, the intensity forecast shows slight strengthening during that period. After that time, increasing vertical wind shear and dry air entrainment should cause the system to weaken, leading to it degenerating to a remnant low by 72 h and dissipating completely after 96 h. The new intensity forecast is a little above the intensity consensus. The initial motion is westward or 280/8. A turn toward the west-northwest is expected during the next 24 h as the system moves along the south side of a low- to mid-level ridge. After that, a turn toward the west and west-southwest is forecast as the cyclone weakens and the low-level trade winds become the dominant steering mechanism. The new forecast track is an update of the previous forecast and lies the near consensus models. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 25/1500Z 10.8N 136.2W 30 KT 35 MPH 12H 26/0000Z 11.2N 137.2W 35 KT 40 MPH 24H 26/1200Z 11.7N 138.2W 35 KT 40 MPH 36H 27/0000Z 12.0N 139.2W 30 KT 35 MPH 48H 27/1200Z 12.2N 140.4W 30 KT 35 MPH 60H 28/0000Z 12.3N 141.9W 25 KT 30 MPH 72H 28/1200Z 12.2N 143.7W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 96H 29/1200Z 11.5N 148.0W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 120H 30/1200Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Beven

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