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Tropical Depression Three Forecast Advisory Number 1
2024-06-30 22:42:36| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 2100 UTC SUN JUN 30 2024 000 WTNT23 KNHC 302042 TCMAT3 TROPICAL DEPRESSION THREE FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 1 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL032024 2100 UTC SUN JUN 30 2024 TROPICAL DEPRESSION CENTER LOCATED NEAR 19.7N 94.9W AT 30/2100Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 280 DEGREES AT 10 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1006 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 30 KT WITH GUSTS TO 40 KT. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 19.7N 94.9W AT 30/2100Z AT 30/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 19.6N 94.4W FORECAST VALID 01/0600Z 20.0N 96.6W...ON THE COAST MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 40NE 30SE 0SW 0NW. FORECAST VALID 01/1800Z 20.2N 99.4W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT. FORECAST VALID 02/0600Z...DISSIPATED REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 19.7N 94.9W INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT33 KNHC/MIATCPAT3...AT 01/0000Z NEXT ADVISORY AT 01/0300Z $$ FORECASTER ROBERTS
Category:Transportation and Logistics
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Hurricane Beryl Forecast Discussion Number 9
2024-06-30 22:35:38| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 500 PM AST Sun Jun 30 2024 000 WTNT42 KNHC 302035 TCDAT2 Hurricane Beryl Discussion Number 9 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL022024 500 PM AST Sun Jun 30 2024 After rapidly strengthening for two days straight, Beryl's intensity appears to have leveled off. The extremely dangerous category 4 hurricane has a circular 10 n mi eye with mesovorticies within it. However, the convection in the eyewall has become a little less symmetric over the past few hours as it has eroded a bit on the south side. The initial intensity is held at 115 kt, which is near the high end of the latest satellite estimates. Both the NOAA and Air Force Hurricane Hunters are scheduled to investigate Beryl again later this evening. Beryl continues to move swiftly westward at 18 kt steered by a strong subtropical ridge to its north. A continued relatively quick westward to west-northwestward motion is expected during the next several days as subtropical ridging remains the primary steering feature. Only a minor shift to the north has been made this cycle, following the trend in the latest models. Fluctuations in strength are common in major hurricanes in conducive environments, and it is expected that Beryl will also fluctuate in strength for the next day or so. There is high confidence that Beryl will remain an extremely dangerous hurricane through landfall in the Windward Islands. As the hurricane tracks across the Caribbean Sea, there likely will be a gradual increase in wind shear, which should induce a slow weakening trend. However, it should be emphasized that Beryl is forecast to remain a significant hurricane during its entire trek across the Caribbean region. The NHC intensity forecast is an update of the previous one and in good agreement with the HCCA and IVCN models. Key Messages: 1. Beryl is expected to remain an extremely dangerous Category 4 hurricane when it reaches the Windward Islands. This is a very dangerous situation and residents in these areas should listen to local government and emergency management officials for any preparedness and/or evacuation orders. All preparations should be rushed to completion today. 2. Potentially catastrophic hurricane-force winds, a life-threatening storm surge, and damaging waves are expected when Beryl passes over portions of the Windward Islands with the highest risk of the core in St. Vincent and the Grenadines, and Grenada beginning early Monday morning. Hurricane Warnings are in effect for much of the Windward Islands. 3. Heavy rainfall and localized flooding are expected across the Windward Islands through Monday. 4. Beryl is expected to remain a powerful hurricane as it moves across the Caribbean Sea later this week. A Tropical Storm Watch has been issued for portions of the southern coast of the Dominican Republic and Haiti. Interests elsewhere in Hispaniola, Jamaica, the Cayman Islands, and the remainder of the northwestern Caribbean should monitor its progress. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 30/2100Z 11.1N 56.5W 115 KT 130 MPH 12H 01/0600Z 11.7N 59.1W 125 KT 145 MPH 24H 01/1800Z 12.8N 62.6W 120 KT 140 MPH 36H 02/0600Z 14.2N 66.3W 110 KT 125 MPH 48H 02/1800Z 15.4N 70.2W 105 KT 120 MPH 60H 03/0600Z 16.4N 74.0W 100 KT 115 MPH 72H 03/1800Z 17.3N 77.7W 95 KT 110 MPH 96H 04/1800Z 18.8N 84.4W 85 KT 100 MPH 120H 05/1800Z 20.3N 89.9W 60 KT 70 MPH...INLAND $$ Forecaster Cangialosi
Category: Transportation and Logistics
Hurricane Beryl Wind Speed Probabilities Number 9
2024-06-30 22:34:36| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 2100 UTC SUN JUN 30 2024 000 FONT12 KNHC 302034 PWSAT2 HURRICANE BERYL WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 9 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL022024 2100 UTC SUN JUN 30 2024 AT 2100Z THE CENTER OF HURRICANE BERYL WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 11.1 NORTH...LONGITUDE 56.5 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 115 KTS...130 MPH...215 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME EASTERN DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME CENTRAL DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 18Z SUN AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 18Z SUN 06Z MON 18Z MON 06Z TUE 18Z TUE 18Z WED 18Z THU PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 06Z MON 18Z MON 06Z TUE 18Z TUE 18Z WED 18Z THU 18Z FRI FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT KEY WEST FL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) X( 3) GFMX 250N 960W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) TUXPAN MX 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) VERACRUZ MX 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) FRONTERA MX 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 7( 7) MERIDA MX 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 17(19) MERIDA MX 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) COZUMEL MX 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 18(18) 25(43) COZUMEL MX 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) 13(18) COZUMEL MX 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 6( 7) BELIZE CITY 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 8( 8) 18(26) BELIZE CITY 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 8(10) BELIZE CITY 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) PUERTO BARRIOS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 8(10) PUERTO BARRIOS 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) PUERTO BARRIOS 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) GUANAJA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 15(15) 9(24) GUANAJA 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) 6(11) GUANAJA 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 3( 5) PUERTO CABEZAS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 1( 5) SAN ANDRES 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) X( 3) PT GALLINAS 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 5( 6) 4(10) X(10) X(10) CURACAO 34 X X( X) 4( 4) 6(10) 1(11) X(11) X(11) GRAND TURK 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) X( 3) X( 3) CP SAN ANTONIO 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 17(17) 10(27) CP SAN ANTONIO 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) 4( 9) CP SAN ANTONIO 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 2( 4) HAVANA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 1( 5) ISLE OF PINES 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 22(23) 3(26) ISLE OF PINES 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 6( 6) 1( 7) ISLE OF PINES 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) X( 3) CIENFUEGOS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 12(14) 1(15) CIENFUEGOS 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) X( 3) CIENFUEGOS 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) CAMAGUEY 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 4( 7) X( 7) GUANTANAMO BAY 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 10(10) 1(11) X(11) GRAND CAYMAN 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 8( 8) 46(54) 2(56) GRAND CAYMAN 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 25(26) 1(27) GRAND CAYMAN 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 12(12) 1(13) MONTEGO BAY 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 50(50) 12(62) 1(63) MONTEGO BAY 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 22(22) 11(33) X(33) MONTEGO BAY 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 9( 9) 6(15) X(15) KINGSTON 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 65(65) 5(70) X(70) KINGSTON 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 37(37) 5(42) X(42) KINGSTON 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 19(19) 4(23) X(23) LES CAYES 34 X X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 31(33) X(33) X(33) LES CAYES 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 11(11) X(11) X(11) LES CAYES 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) X( 3) X( 3) PORT-AU-PRINCE 34 X X( X) X( X) 7( 7) 29(36) X(36) X(36) PORT-AU-PRINCE 50 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 7( 8) X( 8) X( 8) PORT-AU-PRINCE 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) X( 3) X( 3) CAPE BEATA 34 X X( X) X( X) 27(27) 29(56) X(56) X(56) CAPE BEATA 50 X X( X) X( X) 5( 5) 13(18) X(18) X(18) CAPE BEATA 64 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 7( 8) X( 8) X( 8) PUERTO PLATA 34 X X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 6(10) X(10) X(10) SANTO DOMINGO 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 14(15) 5(20) X(20) X(20) SANTO DOMINGO 50 X X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3) PONCE PR 34 X X( X) 5( 5) 7(12) X(12) X(12) X(12) AGUADILLA PR 34 X X( X) 4( 4) 6(10) X(10) X(10) X(10) SAN JUAN PR 34 X X( X) 2( 2) 2( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) VIEQUES PR 34 X X( X) 5( 5) 3( 8) X( 8) X( 8) X( 8) SAINT THOMAS 34 X X( X) 4( 4) 2( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) SAINT CROIX 34 X X( X) 6( 6) 2( 8) X( 8) X( 8) X( 8) SAINT MAARTEN 34 X X( X) 3( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) SABA 34 X 1( 1) 4( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) ST EUSTATIUS 34 X 1( 1) 4( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) ST KITTS-NEVIS 34 X 2( 2) 3( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) BARBUDA 34 X 1( 1) 2( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) GUADELOUPE 34 X 4( 4) 3( 7) X( 7) X( 7) X( 7) X( 7) AVES 34 X 5( 5) 21(26) 1(27) X(27) X(27) X(27) AVES 50 X 1( 1) 2( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) DOMINICA 34 2 8(10) 3(13) X(13) X(13) X(13) X(13) MARTINIQUE 34 1 8( 9) 1(10) X(10) X(10) X(10) X(10) SAINT LUCIA 34 2 62(64) 1(65) X(65) X(65) X(65) X(65) SAINT LUCIA 50 1 11(12) X(12) X(12) X(12) X(12) X(12) SAINT LUCIA 64 X 2( 2) X( 2) X( 2) X( 2) X( 2) X( 2) SAINT VINCENT 34 3 92(95) X(95) X(95) X(95) X(95) X(95) SAINT VINCENT 50 1 61(62) X(62) X(62) X(62) X(62) X(62) SAINT VINCENT 64 X 26(26) X(26) X(26) X(26) X(26) X(26) BARBADOS 34 50 29(79) X(79) X(79) X(79) X(79) X(79) BARBADOS 50 4 11(15) X(15) X(15) X(15) X(15) X(15) BARBADOS 64 1 2( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) GRENADA 34 2 92(94) X(94) X(94) X(94) X(94) X(94) GRENADA 50 1 69(70) 1(71) X(71) X(71) X(71) X(71) GRENADA 64 X 37(37) X(37) X(37) X(37) X(37) X(37) TRINIDADTOBAGO 34 9 66(75) X(75) X(75) X(75) X(75) X(75) TRINIDADTOBAGO 50 1 22(23) X(23) X(23) X(23) X(23) X(23) TRINIDADTOBAGO 64 X 5( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) PORT OF SPAIN 34 1 6( 7) X( 7) X( 7) X( 7) X( 7) X( 7) JUANGRIEGO 34 1 4( 5) 5(10) X(10) X(10) X(10) X(10) $$ FORECASTER CANGIALOSI
Category: Transportation and Logistics