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Tropical Depression Three Graphics
2024-06-30 22:49:09| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Sun, 30 Jun 2024 20:49:09 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Sun, 30 Jun 2024 21:29:01 GMT
Category:Transportation and Logistics
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Tropical Depression Three Forecast Discussion Number 1
2024-06-30 22:46:42| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 400 PM CDT Sun Jun 30 2024 038 WTNT43 KNHC 302046 TCDAT3 Tropical Depression Three Discussion Number 1 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL032024 400 PM CDT Sun Jun 30 2024 Aircraft reconnaissance data and satellite-derived winds indicate that the low-pressure system that emerged over the southeastern Bay of Campeche this morning has become sufficiently organized to be classified as a tropical depression, the third tropical cyclone of the 2024 Atlantic hurricane season. Conventional satellite imagery shows developing curved bands in the northwest and northeast quadrants with a recent deep burst of convection near the surface center. Based on the wind data, this advisory's initial intensity is set at 30 kt. The surrounding environment appears conducive for some strengthening before the tropical cyclone moves inland early Monday. Subsequently, the official intensity forecast calls for the system to become a tropical storm before landfall and this agrees with the global models and the SHIPS statistical guidance. Afterward, the circulation is very likely to dissipate over the mountainous terrain of eastern Mexico by Monday night. The initial motion is estimated to be westward, or 280/10 kt, along the southern periphery of a mid-tropospheric ridge over the north-central Gulf coast. The depression should continue in this general motion and is expected to approach the coast of eastern Mexico tonight and move inland early Monday. The official NHC track forecast is based on a blend of the global models. Based on the forecast, the Government of Mexico has issued a tropical storm warning for a portion of the coast of Mexico within the state of Veracruz. The primary hazard associated with this system is expected to be heavy rainfall, which will result in life-threatening flash floods and mud slides over portions of eastern Mexico and into Monday. Key message: 1. Heavy rainfall will result in areas of flooding across eastern Mexico into Monday, with mudslides possible in areas of higher terrain. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 30/2100Z 19.7N 94.9W 30 KT 35 MPH 12H 01/0600Z 20.0N 96.6W 35 KT 40 MPH...ON THE COAST 24H 01/1800Z 20.2N 99.4W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 36H 02/0600Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Roberts
Category: Transportation and Logistics
Tropical Depression Three Wind Speed Probabilities Number 1
2024-06-30 22:45:03| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 2100 UTC SUN JUN 30 2024 000 FONT13 KNHC 302044 PWSAT3 TROPICAL DEPRESSION THREE WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 1 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL032024 2100 UTC SUN JUN 30 2024 AT 2100Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION THREE WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 19.7 NORTH...LONGITUDE 94.9 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 30 KTS...35 MPH...55 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME EASTERN DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME CENTRAL DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 18Z SUN AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 18Z SUN 06Z MON 18Z MON 06Z TUE 18Z TUE 18Z WED 18Z THU PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 06Z MON 18Z MON 06Z TUE 18Z TUE 18Z WED 18Z THU 18Z FRI FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT $$ FORECASTER ROBERTS
Category: Transportation and Logistics