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Tropical Depression Twelve Forecast Discussion Number 2
2024-09-30 04:40:06| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 1100 PM AST Sun Sep 29 2024 000 WTNT42 KNHC 300239 TCDAT2 Tropical Depression Twelve Discussion Number 2 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL122024 1100 PM AST Sun Sep 29 2024 The depression is gradually becoming better organized while continuing to produce a large area of deep convection. Recent scatterometer winds indicate the center of the system lies on the northern side of the convective cloud mass, with 25-30 kt winds noted within the eastern semicircle of the circulation and weaker winds on the west side. Based on the scatterometer data, the system remains a 30-kt depression for this advisory. The depression is moving westward at about 6 kt, to the south of an established subtropical ridge over the eastern Atlantic. This feature should keep the tropical cyclone on a westward to west-northwestward heading during the next couple of days. Then, a northwestward turn is forecast later this week as a deep-layer trough over the north-central Atlantic weakens the ridge. This recurvature over open waters is supported by the latest track guidance and global model ensembles, and the updated NHC track forecast is essentially an update of the previous one with no notable changes. Intensification is expected due to very favorable environmental and oceanic conditions. The tropical cyclone will move over SSTs warmer than 29C during the next several days, within a moist and unstable environment with weak deep-layer shear. Once the system becomes more consolidated and establishes an inner core, its rate of strengthening is likely to increase. The latest NHC intensity forecast closely follows the HCCA and IVCN multi-model consensus aids, which brings the system to hurricane strength in 48 h and major hurricane intensity by day 5. In addition, the system is forecast to become a large hurricane, with an expanding wind and wave field as it gains latitude later in the period. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 30/0300Z 13.9N 33.2W 30 KT 35 MPH 12H 30/1200Z 14.0N 34.6W 35 KT 40 MPH 24H 01/0000Z 14.2N 36.8W 45 KT 50 MPH 36H 01/1200Z 14.5N 38.9W 55 KT 65 MPH 48H 02/0000Z 15.2N 40.6W 65 KT 75 MPH 60H 02/1200Z 16.4N 42.0W 75 KT 85 MPH 72H 03/0000Z 17.8N 43.3W 85 KT 100 MPH 96H 04/0000Z 20.5N 46.0W 95 KT 110 MPH 120H 05/0000Z 22.5N 48.0W 105 KT 120 MPH $$ Forecaster Reinhart
Category:Transportation and Logistics
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Summary for Tropical Depression Twelve (AT2/AL122024)
2024-09-30 04:39:06| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
...DEPRESSION EXPECTED TO STRENGTHEN OVER THE OPEN ATLANTIC DURING THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS... As of 11:00 PM AST Sun Sep 29 the center of Twelve was located near 13.9, -33.2 with movement W at 7 mph. The minimum central pressure was 1006 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 35 mph.
Category: Transportation and Logistics
Tropical Depression Twelve Public Advisory Number 2
2024-09-30 04:39:06| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 1100 PM AST Sun Sep 29 2024 000 WTNT32 KNHC 300238 TCPAT2 BULLETIN Tropical Depression Twelve Advisory Number 2 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL122024 1100 PM AST Sun Sep 29 2024 ...DEPRESSION EXPECTED TO STRENGTHEN OVER THE OPEN ATLANTIC DURING THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS... SUMMARY OF 1100 PM AST...0300 UTC...INFORMATION ----------------------------------------------- LOCATION...13.9N 33.2W ABOUT 630 MI...1015 KM WSW OF THE CABO VERDE ISLANDS MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 280 DEGREES AT 7 MPH...11 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1006 MB...29.71 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 1100 PM AST (0300 UTC), the center of Tropical Depression Twelve was located near latitude 13.9 North, longitude 33.2 West. The depression is moving toward the west near 7 mph (11 km/h), and a general westward to west-northwestward motion is expected to continue for the next several days. Satellite wind data indicate that maximum sustained winds are near 35 mph (55 km/h) with higher gusts. Gradual strengthening is forecast on Monday, followed by a faster rate of intensification through midweek. The depression could become a hurricane by Tuesday night or Wednesday. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1006 mb (29.71 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- None. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 500 AM AST. $$ Forecaster Reinhart
Category: Transportation and Logistics