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Tropical Depression Twenty-E Forecast Discussion Number 1
2019-11-15 03:32:40| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 800 PM MST Thu Nov 14 2019 000 WTPZ45 KNHC 150232 TCDEP5 Tropical Depression Twenty-E Discussion Number 1 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP202019 800 PM MST Thu Nov 14 2019 Satellite images indicate that the well-defined low pressure system that NHC has been monitoring well south of the Baja California peninsula has now developed sufficently organized deep convection to be classified a tropical depression, the twentieth one of the 2019 eastern North Pacific season. The depression is producing two areas of thunderstorms, one near and east of the low-level center, and the other in bands over the northeastern quadrant. The initial intensity is set at 30 kt, based on a 2.0 Dvorak classification from SAB. The depression has a day or two to strengthen while it remains over warm waters, in relatively moist conditions, and in a low wind shear environment. In about 48 hours, however, a pronounced increase in southwesterly shear and progressively drier air should end the opportunity for strengthening and induce a weakening trend. The cyclone will likely become a remnant low in 3 to 4 days and dissipate shortly thereafter when it moves into an extremely hostile upper-level environment. The NHC intensity forecast lies near the high end of the guidance and is in best agreement with the HCCA consensus model. The depression is moving slowly north-northwestward in the flow on the southwestern periphery of a mid-level ridge. A northwestward to north-northwestward motion at a slightly faster pace should occur during the next couple of days as the ridge strengthens and remains in place. After that time, a faster north-northeastward motion is expected as a large mid- to upper-level low digs to the west of the Baja California peninsula. Once the system becomes weak and shallow, a turn back to the left seems likely in the low-level flow. The NHC track forecast follows the TVCE and HCCA consensus models and brings the remnants of the depression near the southern Baja California peninsula in about 4 days. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 15/0300Z 13.0N 108.4W 30 KT 35 MPH 12H 15/1200Z 13.6N 108.7W 30 KT 35 MPH 24H 16/0000Z 14.7N 109.4W 35 KT 40 MPH 36H 16/1200Z 16.0N 110.3W 40 KT 45 MPH 48H 17/0000Z 17.4N 110.6W 40 KT 45 MPH 72H 18/0000Z 21.1N 109.3W 30 KT 35 MPH 96H 19/0000Z 23.2N 109.7W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 120H 20/0000Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Cangialosi
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