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Tropical Depression Twenty-One-E Forecast Discussion Number 4
2019-11-17 03:31:20| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 900 PM CST Sat Nov 16 2019 000 WTPZ41 KNHC 170231 TCDEP1 Tropical Depression Twenty-One-E Discussion Number 4 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP212019 900 PM CST Sat Nov 16 2019 The depression has changed little during the last several hours. The cyclone remains weak with its deep convection confined to a small area near the estimated center. The initial intensity remains 30 kt for this advisory, which is in agreement with the latest Dvorak classification from TAFB and automated values from CIMSS at the University of Wisconsin. The intensity models are unanimous in showing the depression either holding its strength or weakening during the next couple of days. Although the environmental wind shear is not anticipated to be strong, intrusions of dry air, in part associated with stable air moving through the Gulf of Tehuantepec, should prevent the cyclone from intensifying. The NHC forecast continues to show dissipation by day 3, following the global model guidance, but it would not be surprising if it dissipated or became a remnant low sooner than that. Satellite fixes suggest that the depression is moving westward at about 12 kt steered by a low- to mid-level ridge to its northeast. A slower west-northwest motion is expected during the next few days until the cyclone dissipates. The NHC track forecast is adjusted a little to the north of the previous one, trending toward the latest consensus models. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 17/0300Z 9.8N 102.4W 30 KT 35 MPH 12H 17/1200Z 10.1N 103.6W 30 KT 35 MPH 24H 18/0000Z 10.5N 104.8W 30 KT 35 MPH 36H 18/1200Z 10.8N 105.7W 30 KT 35 MPH 48H 19/0000Z 11.2N 106.8W 30 KT 35 MPH 72H 20/0000Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Cangialosi
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