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Tropical Depression Twenty-One-E Forecast Discussion Number 6
2019-11-17 15:33:59| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 900 AM CST Sun Nov 17 2019 000 WTPZ41 KNHC 171433 TCDEP1 Tropical Depression Twenty-One-E Discussion Number 6 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP212019 900 AM CST Sun Nov 17 2019 Convection has redeveloped near the center of circulation over the past several hours, but this convection appears ragged in satellite imagery. Despite the inability for the depression to maintain organized deep convection for much of last night, recent microwave data indicates that the circulation remains well-defined. The latest subjective Dvorak classification from TAFB suggests the intensity remains 25 kt, which will be the advisory initial intensity. Despite relatively low shear, a fair amount of moisture, and warm sea surface temperatures in the path of the depression, the model guidance unanimously either dissipate the system or make it a remnant low within a couple of days. This could be due to the fact that the depression remains embedded in the Intertropical Convergence Zone, and may never break out of this zone before it opens into a trough. The official forecast is unchanged from the previous one and shows no further strengthening. This is in agreement with the model guidance, and the depression is forecast to no longer be a tropical cyclone by 36 hours. The depression is moving west-northwestward at about 6 kt. There is no change to the track forecast reasoning. A mid-level ridge to the north of the system should continue to steer the depression or its remnants west-northwestward until dissipation occurs. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 17/1500Z 10.5N 102.8W 25 KT 30 MPH 12H 18/0000Z 10.9N 103.7W 25 KT 30 MPH 24H 18/1200Z 11.2N 104.8W 25 KT 30 MPH 36H 19/0000Z 11.4N 105.9W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 48H 19/1200Z 11.7N 106.9W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 72H 20/1200Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Latto
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