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Tropical Depression Twenty-One-E Forecast Discussion Number 8
2019-11-18 03:35:37| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 900 PM CST Sun Nov 17 2019 000 WTPZ41 KNHC 180235 TCDEP1 Tropical Depression Twenty-One-E Discussion Number 8 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP212019 900 PM CST Sun Nov 17 2019 The depression is barely hanging on as a tropical cyclone. Satellite images indicate that the depression still has a closed circulation and patches of deep convection mainly on its north side. The initial intensity remains 25 kt for this advisory based on T1.5/25 kt Dvorak classifications from TAFB and SAB. The GFS and ECMWF models suggest that the depression could continue to produce a modest amount of deep convection on Monday before it moves into an environment of increasing southwesterly wind shear. The NHC forecast shows the cyclone becoming a remnant low by 24 hours, but it could reach this status sooner given how weak the system is. All of the global models shows the cyclone degenerating into a trough by day 3, and the NHC forecast follows that scenario. The center of the depression appears to have reformed a little to the north of what we have been tracking. A long-term motion of the system is 300/9 kt. A low- to mid-level ridge situated to the northeast of the depression should steer it west-northwestward at a slower pace until it dissipates in a few days. The NHC track forecast has been adjusted to the north of the previous one mostly due to the initial position being farther north than expected. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 18/0300Z 11.9N 104.6W 25 KT 30 MPH 12H 18/1200Z 12.1N 105.4W 25 KT 30 MPH 24H 19/0000Z 12.3N 106.4W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 36H 19/1200Z 12.5N 107.5W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 48H 20/0000Z 12.8N 109.0W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 72H 21/0000Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Cangialosi
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