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Tropical Depression Twenty-One-E Forecast Discussion Number 9
2019-11-18 09:33:08| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 300 AM CST Mon Nov 18 2019 000 WTPZ41 KNHC 180833 TCDEP1 Tropical Depression Twenty-One-E Discussion Number 9 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP212019 300 AM CST Mon Nov 18 2019 Organized deep convection had been sparse for a few hours, but some cold cloud tops have recently developed near the estimated center location. Infrared imagery shows a much larger area of deep convection farther to the north and northeast, but this feature lacks curvature and doesn't seem to be directly associated with the depression's circulation. A partial ASCAT-A pass around 0315Z showed only 15-20 kt winds to the east of the center, but the initial intensity is being held, perhaps generously, at 25 kt since the entire circulation was not sampled. The NHC forecast shows the system becoming a remnant low by 24 hours, and while the global models show the circulation dissipating by 72 h, it wouldn't be surprising if this happened much sooner. The center has been difficult to track in infrared imagery, but based on the earlier scatterometer data and the latest satellite fixes, the initial motion estimate is 305/06. The system should be steered generally westward from now until dissipation by a weak low-level ridge to the north. The new NHC forecast lies near the north edge of the guidance envelope close to HCCA and the GFS. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 18/0900Z 12.2N 105.0W 25 KT 30 MPH 12H 18/1800Z 12.3N 105.8W 25 KT 30 MPH 24H 19/0600Z 12.4N 106.6W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 36H 19/1800Z 12.5N 107.5W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 48H 20/0600Z 12.5N 108.8W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 72H 21/0600Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Brennan
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