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Tropical Depression Twenty-one-E Forecast Discussion Number 10
2019-11-18 15:46:12| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 900 AM CST Mon Nov 18 2019 000 WTPZ41 KNHC 181445 CCA TCDEP1 Tropical Depression Twenty-One-E Discussion Number 10...Corrected NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP212019 900 AM CST Mon Nov 18 2019 Corrected to remove location and intensity at 48 hours The deep convection increased this morning near the estimated location of the low level center, and this increase is most likely associated with the diurnal maximum. Subjective Dvorak intensity estimates from TAFB and SAB support winds of 25 knots, which will be the initial advisory intensity. The NHC forecast shows the system becoming a remnant low by 24 hours. All of the available intensity guidance supports this scenario, and the latest forecast is a just continuation of the previous one. Since the cyclone has such a weak tangential wind field, however, it could open into a trough at any time. The center has been difficult to track in infrared imagery this morning, and therefore the initial motion is a somewhat uncertain 280/5 kt. There is no change to the forecast track reasoning. The mid-level ridge to the cyclone's north will continue to steer it slowly to the west until dissipation. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 18/1500Z 12.3N 105.5W 25 KT 30 MPH 12H 19/0000Z 12.4N 106.3W 20 KT 25 MPH 24H 19/1200Z 12.5N 107.3W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 36H 20/0000Z 12.5N 108.6W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 48H 20/1200Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Latto/Mello
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