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Tropical Depression Twenty-one-E Forecast Discussion Number 7
2019-11-17 21:31:33| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 300 PM CST Sun Nov 17 2019 000 WTPZ41 KNHC 172031 TCDEP1 Tropical Depression Twenty-One-E Discussion Number 7 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP212019 300 PM CST Sun Nov 17 2019 The depression is poorly organized and is barely holding on as a tropical cyclone. A late arriving ASCAT-C overpass indicates that the circulation is not as well-defined as previously thought. In addition, convection that had developed earlier this morning near the center is now weakening, with additional convection developing well to its north. The initial advisory intensity is being held at 25 kt, since the scatterometer sampled maximum winds of a little more than 20 kt. All available intensity guidance unanimously weakens the depression over the next couple of days, despite relatively low shear, a fair amount of moisture, and warm sea surface temperatures in its path. This is possibly due to the fact that the depression remains embedded in the Intertropical Convergence Zone, and may never break out of this zone before it opens into a trough. The official forecast is unchanged from the previous one, and the depression is expected to no longer be a tropical cyclone in 36 hours, if not sooner. The depression is moving west-northwestward at a little faster pace of 8 kt. There is no change to the track forecast reasoning. A mid-level ridge to the north of the system should continue to steer the depression or its remnants generally west-northwestward until dissipation occurs. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 17/2100Z 11.1N 103.9W 25 KT 30 MPH 12H 18/0600Z 11.5N 104.9W 25 KT 30 MPH 24H 18/1800Z 11.7N 105.9W 25 KT 30 MPH 36H 19/0600Z 11.9N 107.0W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 48H 19/1800Z 12.1N 108.1W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 72H 20/1800Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Latto
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