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Tropical Depression Two Forecast Advisory Number 1
2024-06-28 22:57:59| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 2100 UTC FRI JUN 28 2024 000 WTNT22 KNHC 282057 CCA TCMAT2 TROPICAL DEPRESSION TWO FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 1...CORRECTED NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL022024 2100 UTC FRI JUN 28 2024 CORRECTED DEPRESSION INITIAL FORWARD MOTION. TROPICAL DEPRESSION CENTER LOCATED NEAR 9.1N 41.9W AT 28/2100Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 275 DEGREES AT 15 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1007 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 30 KT WITH GUSTS TO 40 KT. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 9.1N 41.9W AT 28/2100Z AT 28/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 9.0N 41.0W FORECAST VALID 29/0600Z 9.4N 44.5W MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 30NE 0SE 0SW 0NW. FORECAST VALID 29/1800Z 10.1N 48.0W MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT... 50NE 30SE 0SW 40NW. FORECAST VALID 30/0600Z 10.7N 51.5W MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. 50 KT... 30NE 0SE 0SW 0NW. 34 KT... 70NE 50SE 30SW 60NW. FORECAST VALID 30/1800Z 11.3N 54.8W MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT. 64 KT... 15NE 0SE 0SW 0NW. 50 KT... 30NE 0SE 0SW 30NW. 34 KT... 80NE 60SE 40SW 70NW. FORECAST VALID 01/0600Z 12.0N 58.2W MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT. 50 KT... 40NE 30SE 20SW 40NW. 34 KT...100NE 80SE 40SW 80NW. FORECAST VALID 01/1800Z 13.0N 61.9W MAX WIND 85 KT...GUSTS 105 KT. 50 KT... 40NE 30SE 20SW 40NW. 34 KT...100NE 80SE 40SW 80NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 125 NM ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 02/1800Z 15.5N 69.2W MAX WIND 90 KT...GUSTS 110 KT. 50 KT... 40NE 30SE 20SW 40NW. 34 KT...100NE 80SE 40SW 90NW. OUTLOOK VALID 03/1800Z 17.5N 76.4W MAX WIND 80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT. 50 KT... 40NE 30SE 20SW 40NW. 34 KT...100NE 80SE 40SW 90NW. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 9.1N 41.9W NEXT ADVISORY AT 29/0300Z $$ FORECASTER CANGIALOSI
Category:Transportation and Logistics
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Tropical Depression Two Forecast Discussion Number 1
2024-06-28 22:33:58| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 500 PM AST Fri Jun 28 2024 000 WTNT42 KNHC 282033 TCDAT2 Tropical Depression Two Discussion Number 1 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL022024 500 PM AST Fri Jun 28 2024 The low pressure system that NHC has been monitoring over the central tropical Atlantic has developed sufficiently organized deep convection in bands around the center. In addition, visible satellite images show that the circulation has tightened, and the center now appears well-defined. Thus, a tropical depression has formed, and the initial intensity is set at 30 kt based on the latest Dvorak classifications. Development this far east in late June is unusual, in fact, there have only been a few storms in history that have formed over the central or eastern tropical Atlantic this early in the year. The depression is moving westward at 15 kt. A strong subtropical ridge to the north of the system should keep it moving relatively quickly westward to west-northwestward during the next few days. The system might gain a little more latitude toward the end of the forecast period when it nears a weakness in the subtropical ridge. There is a fair amount of spread in the model guidance, especially in the day 3-5 time frame, due to differences in the strength of the ridge and the aforementioned weakness. The NHC track forecast lies near the consensus aids and is slightly south of the middle of the guidance envelope. Based on this forecast, the system is expected to move across the Windward Islands Sunday night and Monday and track across the eastern and central Caribbean Sea through the middle of next week. Typically, the atmospheric environment is unfavorable for intensification in this portion of the Atlantic basin in late June. However, the overall atmospheric and oceanic conditions appear conducive for steady strengthening during the next few days. Accordingly, the official forecast calls for strengthening and shows the depression becoming a tropical storm tonight or early Saturday and then a hurricane before it reaches the Windward Islands. It should be noted that some of the model guidance is quite aggressive and a fair amount are higher than the official forecast. For example, the hurricane regional models show the system becoming a major hurricane and the GFS model shows the system deepening below 970 mb prior to reaching the Windward Islands. Key Messages: 1. Tropical Depression Two is expected to strengthen and be a hurricane when it reaches the Windward Islands late Sunday night or Monday, bringing a risk of heavy rainfall, hurricane-force winds, and dangerous storm surge and waves. 2. Hurricane and Tropical Storm Watches will likely be required for portions of the Windward and southern Leeward Islands later tonight or early Saturday. 3. Interests in the central and western Caribbean should monitor the progress of this system. Users are reminded that there is large uncertainty at days 4 and 5 and to not focus on the specific details of the track or intensity forecast. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 28/2100Z 9.1N 41.9W 30 KT 35 MPH 12H 29/0600Z 9.4N 44.5W 35 KT 40 MPH 24H 29/1800Z 10.1N 48.0W 40 KT 45 MPH 36H 30/0600Z 10.7N 51.5W 50 KT 60 MPH 48H 30/1800Z 11.3N 54.8W 65 KT 75 MPH 60H 01/0600Z 12.0N 58.2W 75 KT 85 MPH 72H 01/1800Z 13.0N 61.9W 85 KT 100 MPH 96H 02/1800Z 15.5N 69.2W 90 KT 105 MPH 120H 03/1800Z 17.5N 76.4W 80 KT 90 MPH $$ Forecaster Cangialosi
Category: Transportation and Logistics
Tropical Depression Two Wind Speed Probabilities Number 1
2024-06-28 22:33:31| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 2100 UTC FRI JUN 28 2024 000 FONT12 KNHC 282033 PWSAT2 TROPICAL DEPRESSION TWO WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 1 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL022024 2100 UTC FRI JUN 28 2024 AT 2100Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION TWO WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 9.1 NORTH...LONGITUDE 41.9 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 30 KTS...35 MPH...55 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME EASTERN DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME CENTRAL DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 18Z FRI AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 18Z FRI 06Z SAT 18Z SAT 06Z SUN 18Z SUN 18Z MON 18Z TUE PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 06Z SAT 18Z SAT 06Z SUN 18Z SUN 18Z MON 18Z TUE 18Z WED FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT PT GALLINAS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 6( 6) 7(13) PT GALLINAS 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 3( 5) PT GALLINAS 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) CURACAO 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 14(14) 3(17) CURACAO 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 6( 6) 1( 7) CURACAO 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 1( 4) GREAT EXUMA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) MAYAGUANA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 4( 5) GRAND TURK 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 4( 6) ISLE OF PINES 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) CIENFUEGOS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) CAMAGUEY 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) GUANTANAMO BAY 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 11(11) GRAND CAYMAN 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 9( 9) GRAND CAYMAN 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) GRAND CAYMAN 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) MONTEGO BAY 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 25(25) MONTEGO BAY 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 9( 9) MONTEGO BAY 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) KINGSTON 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 29(30) KINGSTON 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 12(12) KINGSTON 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) LES CAYES 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 20(23) LES CAYES 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 6( 6) LES CAYES 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) PORT-AU-PRINCE 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 8( 8) 24(32) PORT-AU-PRINCE 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 8(10) PORT-AU-PRINCE 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) CAPE BEATA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 17(17) 25(42) CAPE BEATA 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) 13(18) CAPE BEATA 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 6( 8) PUERTO PLATA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 7( 7) 9(16) PUERTO PLATA 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) SANTO DOMINGO 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 18(18) 11(29) SANTO DOMINGO 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 4( 8) SANTO DOMINGO 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) PONCE PR 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 21(21) 2(23) PONCE PR 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 6( 6) X( 6) PONCE PR 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) X( 2) AGUADILLA PR 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 18(18) 3(21) AGUADILLA PR 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) 1( 6) AGUADILLA PR 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) SAN JUAN PR 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 8( 8) 1( 9) VIEQUES PR 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 15(16) 1(17) VIEQUES PR 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 1( 4) VIEQUES PR 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) SAINT THOMAS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 12(13) 1(14) SAINT THOMAS 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) X( 3) SAINT THOMAS 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) SAINT CROIX 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 17(18) 1(19) SAINT CROIX 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) X( 4) SAINT CROIX 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) X( 2) SAINT MAARTEN 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 8(10) X(10) SABA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 11(14) X(14) SABA 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) X( 3) ST EUSTATIUS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 10(14) X(14) ST EUSTATIUS 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) X( 3) ST KITTS-NEVIS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) 10(15) X(15) ST KITTS-NEVIS 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) X( 3) ST KITTS-NEVIS 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) BARBUDA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) 5(10) X(10) ANTIGUA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 3( 6) X( 6) GUADELOUPE 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 15(15) 6(21) X(21) GUADELOUPE 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 2( 4) X( 4) AVES 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 15(15) 25(40) X(40) AVES 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 12(14) X(14) AVES 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 6( 7) X( 7) DOMINICA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 28(28) 7(35) X(35) DOMINICA 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 7( 7) 4(11) X(11) DOMINICA 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 2( 4) X( 4) MARTINIQUE 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 22(22) 4(26) X(26) MARTINIQUE 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 6( 6) 2( 8) X( 8) MARTINIQUE 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) X( 2) SAINT LUCIA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 51(51) 5(56) 1(57) SAINT LUCIA 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 23(23) 4(27) 1(28) SAINT LUCIA 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 8( 8) 3(11) X(11) SAINT VINCENT 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 57(57) 8(65) X(65) SAINT VINCENT 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 28(28) 5(33) X(33) SAINT VINCENT 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 12(12) 4(16) X(16) BARBADOS 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 60(61) 1(62) X(62) BARBADOS 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 30(30) 1(31) X(31) BARBADOS 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 12(12) X(12) X(12) GRENADA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 42(42) 8(50) X(50) GRENADA 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 21(21) 5(26) X(26) GRENADA 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 9( 9) 4(13) X(13) TRINIDADTOBAGO 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 36(36) 2(38) 1(39) TRINIDADTOBAGO 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 15(15) 2(17) X(17) TRINIDADTOBAGO 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) 1( 6) X( 6) PORT OF SPAIN 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 11(11) 2(13) X(13) PORT OF SPAIN 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) JUANGRIEGO 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 8( 8) 11(19) 1(20) JUANGRIEGO 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 5( 7) X( 7) JUANGRIEGO 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) X( 3) $$ FORECASTER CANGIALOSI
Category: Transportation and Logistics