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Tropical Depression Vicente Forecast Discussion Number 16
2018-10-23 10:38:30| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 400 AM CDT Tue Oct 23 2018 000 WTPZ43 KNHC 230838 TCDEP3 Tropical Depression Vicente Discussion Number 16 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP232018 400 AM CDT Tue Oct 23 2018 Cells of heavy showers and thunderstorms are still forming near Vicente's center, but overall the convective organization has continued to deteriorate. Scatterometer data from 0418 UTC showed maximum winds of around 25 kt, so assuming some undersampling of the small circulation, the initial intensity is lowered to 30 kt. WindSat and ASCAT data revealed that Vicente's center had moved a little to the east of earlier fixes, and the depression's initial motion estimate is north-northwestward, or 330/10 kt. This motion should continue as Vicente gets drawn up between Hurricane Willa's circulation and a low- to mid-level ridge over the Gulf of Mexico, and the depression is therefore forecast to move inland over the Mexican state of Michoacan later today. Once inland, the tiny circulation is likely to dissipate quickly over mountainous terrain. A 12-hour remnant low position is provided for continuity to show a track moving inland, but in all likelihood Vicente will have dissipated by that time. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 23/0900Z 17.2N 102.0W 30 KT 35 MPH 12H 23/1800Z 19.2N 103.2W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/INLAND 24H 24/0600Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Berg
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