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Tropical Storm ALVIN Forecast Advisory Number 3

2013-05-16 04:41:13| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)

Issued at 0300 UTC THU MAY 16 2013 000 WTPZ21 KNHC 160241 TCMEP1 TROPICAL STORM ALVIN FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 3 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP012013 0300 UTC THU MAY 16 2013 THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 9.0N 105.9W AT 16/0300Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 290 DEGREES AT 10 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1004 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 40 KT WITH GUSTS TO 50 KT. 34 KT....... 40NE 20SE 0SW 40NW. 12 FT SEAS.. 90NE 0SE 0SW 45NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 9.0N 105.9W AT 16/0300Z AT 16/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 8.8N 105.5W FORECAST VALID 16/1200Z 9.5N 107.3W MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. 50 KT... 20NE 0SE 0SW 20NW. 34 KT... 60NE 40SE 20SW 60NW. FORECAST VALID 17/0000Z 10.2N 109.0W MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT. 50 KT... 30NE 20SE 0SW 30NW. 34 KT... 80NE 50SE 30SW 70NW. FORECAST VALID 17/1200Z 10.9N 110.5W MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT. 64 KT... 20NE 10SE 0SW 15NW. 50 KT... 40NE 30SE 20SW 40NW. 34 KT...100NE 60SE 50SW 90NW. FORECAST VALID 18/0000Z 11.6N 111.9W MAX WIND 80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT. 50 KT... 50NE 40SE 30SW 50NW. 34 KT...110NE 70SE 60SW 100NW. FORECAST VALID 19/0000Z 13.0N 114.0W MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT. 50 KT... 50NE 40SE 30SW 50NW. 34 KT...100NE 70SE 60SW 100NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 20/0000Z 14.7N 116.0W MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 21/0000Z 16.0N 117.3W MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 9.0N 105.9W NEXT ADVISORY AT 16/0900Z $$ FORECASTER KIMBERLAIN

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