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Tropical Storm AMANDA Forecast Discussion Number 22
2014-05-28 04:38:33| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 800 PM PDT TUE MAY 27 2014 000 WTPZ41 KNHC 280238 TCDEP1 TROPICAL STORM AMANDA DISCUSSION NUMBER 22 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP012014 800 PM PDT TUE MAY 27 2014 Amanda's cloud pattern continues to lose organization. Several microwave overpasses during the past 6 to 8 hours show that the center of the cyclone is exposed to the south of the nearest deep convection and is located farther south than previous estimated. Late-afternoon visible imagery confirmed these findings, with geostationary imagery also showing the convection warming and shrinking in coverage. The degradation in organization has resulted in a significant decrease of satellite intensity estimates since this afternoon. The initial intensity is somewhat uncertain since the Dvorak technique does not work well for rapidly weakening cyclones but is reduced to 60 kt based on a blend of T- and CI numbers from TAFB and NESDIS SAB. Additional weakening is likely as south-southwesterly shear, the entrainment of drier and more stable air, and a cooler ocean surface take their toll on Amanda. Even though the shear is forecast to decrease in 24 to 36 hours, it appears that it will be too late for the cyclone to overcome the combined effect of these negative factors for intensification. Remnant low status is now forecast in 72 hours, although it could occur sooner. The official forecast is lower relative to the previous one and near but a bit lower than a combination of the multi-model consensus, Decay-SHIPS, and LGEM. Center fixes suggest that the motion had been west-northwesterly throughout the day, and the initial motion estimate is left of the previous one or 305 degrees at 3 kt. The cyclone remains embedded in a weak steering environment between a low- to mid-level ridge to the east-northeast and a mid- to upper-level trough to the northwest. This synoptic pattern should allow for a generally slow northward or north-northeastward motion for the next few days before Amanda degenerates into a remnant low and turns westward or southwestward. Should Amanda weaken faster than forecast, little motion is expected, and its remnants could turn eastward in an anomalous low-level westerly flow. The official forecast is on the far western side of the guidance envelope, and is much slower than the previous forecast due primarily to the more southern initial position. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 28/0300Z 14.6N 112.9W 60 KT 70 MPH 12H 28/1200Z 15.0N 112.8W 50 KT 60 MPH 24H 29/0000Z 15.8N 112.4W 40 KT 45 MPH 36H 29/1200Z 16.5N 111.9W 35 KT 40 MPH 48H 30/0000Z 17.0N 111.5W 30 KT 35 MPH 72H 31/0000Z 17.1N 111.4W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 96H 01/0000Z 16.8N 111.5W 15 KT 15 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 120H 02/0000Z 16.5N 111.8W 15 KT 15 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW $$ Forecaster Kimberlain
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