je.st
news
Tropical Storm AMANDA Forecast Discussion Number 24
2014-05-28 16:32:01| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 800 AM PDT WED MAY 28 2014 000 WTPZ41 KNHC 281431 TCDEP1 TROPICAL STORM AMANDA DISCUSSION NUMBER 24 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP012014 800 AM PDT WED MAY 28 2014 Although Amanda is producing a considerable amount of deep convection, with cloud tops as cold as -85 C, the cloud pattern lacks organization. Microwave images show that the low-level center is located near the southern edge of the convective area, indicative of the continued influence of southerly shear. The latest Dvorak classifications have decreased slightly, and support lowering the initial wind speed to 55 kt. Vertical cross sections from the GFS model show a pronounced south to north tilt of the vortex due to the shear. Since the environmental winds are not expected to change much during the next 24 hours, additional weakening is anticipated. Even though the shear is forecast to lessen on Thursday, Amanda is expected to continue to lose strength due to dry air entrainment and lower sea surface temperatures along the forecast track. The NHC intensity forecast follows the trend in the guidance and calls for Amanda to become a remnant low in a few days. The tropical storm is moving slowly northeastward in the flow between a trough to its west and a ridge to its east over Mexico. This continued motion, with some increase in forward speed, is expected during the next day or two. After that time, however, Amanda is forecast to reverse its course and move slowly southwestward when a low- to mid-level ridge builds to the north of the weakening system. The NHC track forecast is close to the multi-model consensus, and not too far from the previous official track forecast. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 28/1500Z 15.0N 112.0W 55 KT 65 MPH 12H 29/0000Z 15.5N 111.4W 45 KT 50 MPH 24H 29/1200Z 16.3N 110.2W 40 KT 45 MPH 36H 30/0000Z 17.1N 109.2W 35 KT 40 MPH 48H 30/1200Z 17.5N 108.7W 30 KT 35 MPH 72H 31/1200Z 17.7N 109.2W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 96H 01/1200Z 17.0N 110.3W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 120H 02/1200Z 16.0N 111.5W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW $$ Forecaster Cangialosi
Tags: number
discussion
storm
tropical
Category:Transportation and Logistics
Latest from this category |
All news |
||||||||||||||||||
|
|||||||||||||||||||