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Tropical Storm AMANDA Forecast Discussion Number 26
2014-05-29 04:31:40| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 800 PM PDT WED MAY 28 2014 000 WTPZ41 KNHC 290231 TCDEP1 TROPICAL STORM AMANDA DISCUSSION NUMBER 26 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP012014 800 PM PDT WED MAY 28 2014 The cloud tops of Amanda have been warming during the past few hours with almost no deep convection near the center. Although a well-defined mid-level center is apparent on the latest satellite imagery, this feature is well to the northeast of the low-level circulation as indicated by ASCAT data and a recent SSMI/S pass. Based on the current satellite trends, the initial intensity is lowered to 40 kt, a bit below the recent Dvorak estimates. The microwave data show that Amanda is moving to the northeast at a little slower pace of about 5 kt. This motion should continue on Thursday ahead of a mid-level trough. This trough is expected to moving away from Amanda by Friday, which would leave the storm in light steering currents. After that time, the weakened storm will probably turn to the west and west-southwest as a low- to mid-level ridge builds over the eastern Pacific. There have not been any significant changes to the guidance, and the latest NHC forecast is very close to the previous one. Amanda should continue to weaken for the next couple of days due to moderate shear, dry air aloft and marginal SSTs. While the shear is forecast to weaken some in a day or so, the storm will likely have entrained a significant amount of dry air by then, and it probably won't be able to take advantage of the decreased shear. The cyclone should become a remnant low in a couple of days due to these marginal environment conditions. Most of the guidance shows steady weakening and the official NHC prediction follows suit, at or below the intensity consensus throughout the period. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 29/0300Z 16.3N 111.3W 40 KT 45 MPH 12H 29/1200Z 16.7N 110.7W 35 KT 40 MPH 24H 30/0000Z 17.2N 109.7W 30 KT 35 MPH 36H 30/1200Z 17.5N 109.0W 25 KT 30 MPH 48H 31/0000Z 17.6N 109.0W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 72H 01/0000Z 17.3N 110.0W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 96H 02/0000Z 16.5N 111.5W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 120H 03/0000Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Blake
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