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Tropical Storm ANDREA Wind Speed Probabilities Number 1
2013-06-05 23:55:06| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 2200 UTC WED JUN 05 2013 000 FONT11 KNHC 052154 PWSAT1 TROPICAL STORM ANDREA SPECIAL WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 1 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL012013 2200 UTC WED JUN 05 2013 AT 2200Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM ANDREA WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 25.3 NORTH...LONGITUDE 86.5 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 35 KTS...40 MPH...65 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME EASTERN DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME CENTRAL DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME I. MAXIMUM WIND SPEED (INTENSITY) PROBABILITY TABLE CHANCES THAT THE MAXIMUM SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEED OF THE TROPICAL CYCLONE WILL BE WITHIN ANY OF THE FOLLOWING CATEGORIES AT EACH OFFICIAL FORECAST TIME DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS. PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT. X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT. - - - MAXIMUM WIND SPEED (INTENSITY) PROBABILITIES - - - VALID TIME 06Z THU 18Z THU 06Z FRI 18Z FRI 18Z SAT 18Z SUN 18Z MON FORECAST HOUR 12 24 36 48 72 96 120 - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - DISSIPATED 1 3 7 11 21 21 24 TROP DEPRESSION 31 24 27 29 28 23 26 TROPICAL STORM 67 69 61 54 46 50 45 HURRICANE 1 4 5 6 5 6 5 - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - HUR CAT 1 1 4 5 5 5 5 4 HUR CAT 2 X X 1 1 X 1 1 HUR CAT 3 X X X X X X X HUR CAT 4 X X X X X X X HUR CAT 5 X X X X X X X - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - FCST MAX WIND 35KT 40KT 40KT 40KT 40KT 40KT 40KT II. WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS IP(CP) WHERE IP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (INDIVIDUAL PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 18Z WED AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 64 KT ARE SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 18Z WED 06Z THU 18Z THU 06Z FRI 18Z FRI 18Z SAT 18Z SUN PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 06Z THU 18Z THU 06Z FRI 18Z FRI 18Z SAT 18Z SUN 18Z MON FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT SANTA CRUZ AZO 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) HIBERNIA OILFD 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 6( 6) 3( 9) CAPE RACE NFLD 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 9( 9) 1(10) ILE ST PIERRE 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 8( 8) X( 8) BURGEO NFLD 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) X( 5) PTX BASQUES 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) X( 4) EDDY POINT NS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 9(12) X(12) SYDNEY NS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 8( 9) 1(10) SABLE ISLAND 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 17(19) X(19) SABLE ISLAND 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) X( 3) HALIFAX NS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 6( 6) 9(15) X(15) HALIFAX NS 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) X( 3) YARMOUTH NS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 11(11) 6(17) X(17) YARMOUTH NS 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) MONCTON NB 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 3( 6) X( 6) ST JOHN NB 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 4( 8) X( 8) EASTPORT ME 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 6( 6) 3( 9) X( 9) BAR HARBOR ME 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 6( 6) 2( 8) X( 8) AUGUSTA ME 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) 1( 6) X( 6) PORTLAND ME 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 6( 6) 1( 7) X( 7) CONCORD NH 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) X( 5) X( 5) BOSTON MA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 9( 9) 1(10) X(10) HYANNIS MA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 15(15) 1(16) X(16) HYANNIS MA 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) X( 3) X( 3) NANTUCKET MA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 18(18) 1(19) X(19) NANTUCKET MA 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) X( 4) X( 4) PROVIDENCE RI 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 11(11) X(11) X(11) HARTFORD CT 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 7( 7) X( 7) X( 7) MONTAUK POINT 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 12(12) 1(13) X(13) NEW YORK CITY 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 8( 8) X( 8) X( 8) NEWARK NJ 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 6( 6) X( 6) X( 6) TRENTON NJ 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) X( 5) X( 5) ATLANTIC CITY 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 11(11) X(11) X(11) BALTIMORE MD 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 4( 5) X( 5) X( 5) DOVER DE 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 8( 9) X( 9) X( 9) ANNAPOLIS MD 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 5( 6) X( 6) X( 6) WASHINGTON DC 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 4( 5) X( 5) X( 5) OCEAN CITY MD 34 X X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 13(15) X(15) X(15) OCEAN CITY MD 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) X( 3) X( 3) RICHMOND VA 34 X X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 8(11) X(11) X(11) NORFOLK NAS 34 X X( X) X( X) 5( 5) 14(19) X(19) X(19) NORFOLK NAS 50 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) X( 4) X( 4) NORFOLK VA 34 X X( X) X( X) 5( 5) 16(21) X(21) X(21) NORFOLK VA 50 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) X( 4) X( 4) NORFOLK VA 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) X( 1) WALLOPS CDA 34 X X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 14(16) X(16) X(16) WALLOPS CDA 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) X( 3) X( 3) GREENSBORO NC 34 X X( X) X( X) 5( 5) 2( 7) X( 7) X( 7) RALEIGH NC 34 X X( X) X( X) 9( 9) 6(15) X(15) X(15) RALEIGH NC 50 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) X( 3) X( 3) CAPE HATTERAS 34 X X( X) X( X) 10(10) 20(30) X(30) X(30) CAPE HATTERAS 50 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 4( 5) X( 5) X( 5) CAPE HATTERAS 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) X( 1) CHARLOTTE NC 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 6( 7) 1( 8) X( 8) X( 8) MOREHEAD CITY 34 X X( X) X( X) 20(20) 12(32) X(32) X(32) MOREHEAD CITY 50 X X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 3( 5) X( 5) X( 5) MOREHEAD CITY 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) X( 1) WILMINGTON NC 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 23(24) 7(31) X(31) X(31) WILMINGTON NC 50 X X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 2( 6) X( 6) X( 6) WILMINGTON NC 64 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) X( 1) X( 1) COLUMBIA SC 34 X X( X) 2( 2) 13(15) 1(16) X(16) X(16) COLUMBIA SC 50 X X( X) X( X) 3( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) MYRTLE BEACH 34 X X( X) 2( 2) 26(28) 3(31) X(31) X(31) MYRTLE BEACH 50 X X( X) X( X) 5( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) MYRTLE BEACH 64 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) X( 1) X( 1) CHARLESTON SC 34 X X( X) 6( 6) 25(31) 1(32) X(32) X(32) CHARLESTON SC 50 X X( X) 1( 1) 4( 5) 1( 6) X( 6) X( 6) CHARLESTON SC 64 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) X( 1) X( 1) AUGUSTA GA 34 X X( X) 4( 4) 9(13) X(13) X(13) X(13) SAVANNAH GA 34 X X( X) 15(15) 16(31) X(31) X(31) X(31) SAVANNAH GA 50 X X( X) 2( 2) 4( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) SAVANNAH GA 64 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) X( 1) X( 1) MAYPORT NS 34 X 2( 2) 34(36) 8(44) X(44) X(44) X(44) MAYPORT NS 50 X X( X) 5( 5) 2( 7) X( 7) X( 7) X( 7) JACKSONVILLE 34 X 3( 3) 35(38) 6(44) X(44) X(44) X(44) JACKSONVILLE 50 X X( X) 5( 5) 1( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) JACKSONVILLE 64 X X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) X( 1) X( 1) X( 1) DAYTONA BEACH 34 X 4( 4) 25(29) 3(32) X(32) X(32) X(32) DAYTONA BEACH 50 X X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) ORLANDO FL 34 X 5( 5) 19(24) 1(25) X(25) X(25) X(25) COCOA BEACH FL 34 X 3( 3) 12(15) 1(16) X(16) X(16) X(16) PATRICK AFB 34 X 3( 3) 12(15) 1(16) X(16) X(16) X(16) FT PIERCE FL 34 X 3( 3) 5( 8) 1( 9) X( 9) X( 9) X( 9) W PALM BEACH 34 X 2( 2) 3( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) MIAMI FL 34 X 2( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) KEY WEST FL 34 1 1( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) MARCO ISLAND 34 1 4( 5) 2( 7) X( 7) X( 7) X( 7) X( 7) FT MYERS FL 34 1 6( 7) 5(12) X(12) X(12) X(12) X(12) VENICE FL 34 1 15(16) 6(22) X(22) X(22) X(22) X(22) TAMPA FL 34 1 17(18) 18(36) X(36) X(36) X(36) X(36) CEDAR KEY FL 34 1 16(17) 33(50) 1(51) X(51) X(51) X(51) CEDAR KEY FL 50 X 1( 1) 6( 7) X( 7) X( 7) X( 7) X( 7) TALLAHASSEE FL 34 1 5( 6) 13(19) X(19) X(19) X(19) X(19) TALLAHASSEE FL 50 X X( X) 3( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) ST MARKS FL 34 1 7( 8) 17(25) X(25) X(25) X(25) X(25) ST MARKS FL 50 X X( X) 5( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) APALACHICOLA 34 1 13(14) 9(23) X(23) X(23) X(23) X(23) APALACHICOLA 50 X 1( 1) 2( 3) 1( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) GFMX 290N 850W 34 2 25(27) 8(35) X(35) X(35) X(35) X(35) GFMX 290N 850W 50 X 4( 4) 3( 7) X( 7) X( 7) X( 7) X( 7) GFMX 290N 850W 64 X X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) X( 1) X( 1) X( 1) PANAMA CITY FL 34 1 6( 7) 4(11) X(11) X(11) X(11) X(11) COLUMBUS GA 34 X 1( 1) 1( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) GFMX 290N 870W 34 1 6( 7) 1( 8) X( 8) X( 8) X( 8) X( 8) $$ FORECASTER BROWN/BRENNAN
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