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Tropical Storm ANDRES Forecast Discussion Number 28
2015-06-04 04:43:27| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 800 PM PDT WED JUN 03 2015 000 WTPZ41 KNHC 040243 TCDEP1 TROPICAL STORM ANDRES DISCUSSION NUMBER 28 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP012015 800 PM PDT WED JUN 03 2015 Andres continues to generate a small area of convection to the northeast of the center despite being over sea surface temperatures near 24C. Satellite intensity estimates continue to decrease, and the initial intensity is set at 45 kt based on continuity from the previous advisory and a 45-kt satellite intensity estimate from TAFB. Cold water and increasing vertical wind shear should cause Andres to steadily weaken through the forecast period. The cyclone is expected to weaken to a tropical depression within 24 hours, degenerate to a remnant low in about 36 hours, and dissipate completely after 96 hours. Andres has turned northward over the past several hours with the initial motion of 010/3. The cyclone is likely to be situated within a col region with little steering flow during the next 48 hours or so with only a slow motion expected. After that time, a somewhat faster motion toward the southeast or east-southeast should occur as the large circulation of Hurricane Blanca to the east becomes the main steering influence. The new forecast track has been nudged a little south of the previous track after 24 hours and lies near the model consensus. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 04/0300Z 20.2N 125.2W 45 KT 50 MPH 12H 04/1200Z 20.3N 125.0W 35 KT 40 MPH 24H 05/0000Z 20.1N 124.7W 30 KT 35 MPH 36H 05/1200Z 19.8N 124.5W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 48H 06/0000Z 19.4N 124.2W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 72H 07/0000Z 18.5N 123.0W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 96H 08/0000Z 17.5N 120.5W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 120H 09/0000Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Beven
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