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Tropical Storm ANDRES Forecast Discussion Number 4
2015-05-29 04:34:33| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 900 PM MDT THU MAY 28 2015 000 WTPZ41 KNHC 290234 TCDEP1 TROPICAL STORM ANDRES DISCUSSION NUMBER 4 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP012015 900 PM MDT THU MAY 28 2015 Andres is continuing to intensify. Although the cloud tops near the center have recently warmed, the latest microwave and conventional satellite images are now showing the formation of a ragged eye. An average of the latest intensity estimates is just below hurricane strength, so the initial wind speed is set to 60 kt. The storm appears to be moving to the west-northwest at about 9 kt, a bit slower than before. Andres should turn northwestward tomorrow as a result of a slight weakness in the subtropical ridge. In a few days, the ridge restrengthens, which should then steer Andres more toward the west-northwest and west. The latest models have again shifted to the left, apparently due to a stronger ridge than originally predicted, and the official forecast follows the westward trend in the model consensus. Although it seems clear that the cyclone should strengthen over the next couple of days with generally favorable environmental conditions, the amount of shear is a wild card for this forecast. Most of the global models are showing shear values that are higher than ideal for rapid intensification, and the shear is the biggest inhibitor in the latest SHIPS RI index. Andres has been moving left of expected, however, which has been prolonging the lower shear and warmest water conditions. Thus, the new NHC wind speed forecast will remain above most of the guidance, similar to the previous prediction, and it would not be surprising if this forecast is too low for the reasons given above. After 48 hours, Andres should begin to weaken when it encounters cooler waters and a more stable air mass. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 29/0300Z 11.8N 113.3W 60 KT 70 MPH 12H 29/1200Z 12.5N 114.4W 70 KT 80 MPH 24H 30/0000Z 13.5N 115.4W 80 KT 90 MPH 36H 30/1200Z 14.4N 116.2W 85 KT 100 MPH 48H 31/0000Z 15.3N 116.9W 90 KT 105 MPH 72H 01/0000Z 16.7N 118.9W 80 KT 90 MPH 96H 02/0000Z 17.5N 121.5W 60 KT 70 MPH 120H 03/0000Z 18.0N 124.5W 45 KT 50 MPH $$ Forecaster Blake
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