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Tropical Storm Aletta Forecast Discussion Number 2
2024-07-04 22:32:02| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 200 PM MST Thu Jul 04 2024 000 WTPZ41 KNHC 042031 TCDEP1 Tropical Storm Aletta Discussion Number 2 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP012024 200 PM MST Thu Jul 04 2024 The satellite presentation of the tropical cyclone this afternoon consists of a small area of deep convection over the center, with a curved band over the western portion of the circulation. Various satellite estimates today indicate the compact system could be stronger than previously estimated. Recent UW-CIMSS objective satellite intensity estimates (including ADT, AiDT, DPRINT, and SATCON) range from 31-35 kt. SAB and TAFB provided T2.0 final-T numbers, although SAB did report a T2.5 data-T number. Also, there was an earlier RCM-1 SAR overpass that showed tropical-storm-force winds within the compact circulation. Given the small size of the system, these higher estimates appear believable, and so the initial intensity is raised to 35 kt for this advisory. Thus, the depression has strengthened to Tropical Storm Aletta. Aletta is moving northwestward (315 degrees) at around 9 kt. A turn toward the west-northwest and west is expected tonight and Friday as the shallow cyclone becomes increasingly steered by the low-level flow. Aletta is likely at or near its peak intensity. The bulk of the intensity guidance shows weakening over the next day or two while the storm moves into a drier environment over cooler SSTs. Simulated satellite imagery from the GFS and ECMWF show convection could collapse overnight or early Friday, and the low is forecast to spin down and dissipate later this weekend. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 04/2100Z 17.9N 107.0W 35 KT 40 MPH 12H 05/0600Z 18.3N 108.1W 30 KT 35 MPH 24H 05/1800Z 18.2N 109.6W 30 KT 35 MPH 36H 06/0600Z 17.8N 111.1W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 48H 06/1800Z 17.3N 112.8W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 60H 07/0600Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Reinhart
Category:Transportation and Logistics
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Summary for Tropical Storm Aletta (EP1/EP012024)
2024-07-04 22:31:32| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
...DEPRESSION STRENGTHENS INTO TROPICAL STORM ALETTA... As of 2:00 PM MST Thu Jul 4 the center of Aletta was located near 17.9, -107.0 with movement NW at 10 mph. The minimum central pressure was 1005 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 40 mph.
Category: Transportation and Logistics
Tropical Storm Aletta Public Advisory Number 2
2024-07-04 22:31:32| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 200 PM MST Thu Jul 04 2024 000 WTPZ31 KNHC 042031 TCPEP1 BULLETIN Tropical Storm Aletta Advisory Number 2 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP012024 200 PM MST Thu Jul 04 2024 ...DEPRESSION STRENGTHENS INTO TROPICAL STORM ALETTA... SUMMARY OF 200 PM MST...2100 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...17.9N 107.0W ABOUT 190 MI...310 KM WSW OF MANZANILLO MEXICO MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 315 DEGREES AT 10 MPH...17 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1005 MB...29.68 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 200 PM MST (2100 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Aletta was located near latitude 17.9 North, longitude 107.0 West. Aletta is moving toward the northwest near 10 mph (17 km/h). A turn toward the west-northwest and west is expected tonight and Friday. Maximum sustained winds have increased to near 40 mph (65 km/h) with higher gusts. Some gradual weakening is forecast during the next day or two. Aletta is forecast to become a remnant low by Friday night and dissipate this weekend. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 45 miles (75 km) from the center. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1005 mb (29.68 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- None. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 800 PM MST. $$ Forecaster Reinhart
Category: Transportation and Logistics