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Tropical Storm Ana Forecast Discussion Number 5
2021-05-23 10:30:25| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 500 AM AST Sun May 23 2021 381 WTNT41 KNHC 230830 TCDAT1 Tropical Storm Ana Discussion Number 5 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL012021 500 AM AST Sun May 23 2021 Satellite images indicate that Ana has contracted significantly since yesterday and now has a compact area of moderate convection around the center. Given the tight low-level circulation, small radius of maximum wind, and compact central convection, Ana is now estimated to have transitioned from a subtropical storm to a tropical storm. The initial intensity remains 40 kt for this advisory based on the earlier ASCAT data, which indicated that the tropical-storm-force winds were confined to the south side of the circulation. Ana is not expected to be around much longer. The storm is headed for an environment of lower SSTs, drier air, and increasing wind shear. All of these factors should cause the compact cyclone to lose strength and ultimately open into a trough in 24 to 36 hours. In fact, some of the models suggest that the storm could dissipate even sooner than that. The remnants of Ana will likely be absorbed by a cold front on Monday. The storm continues to increase its forward speed, and the initial motion is now estimated to be 045/10 kt. A faster motion to the northeast is expected until the cyclone dissipates. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 23/0900Z 35.7N 60.5W 40 KT 45 MPH 12H 23/1800Z 36.7N 58.7W 40 KT 45 MPH 24H 24/0600Z 39.4N 53.9W 35 KT 40 MPH 36H 24/1800Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Cangialosi [ more ]
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