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Tropical Storm Andres Forecast Discussion Number 2
2021-05-09 16:54:30| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 900 AM MDT Sun May 09 2021 000 WTPZ41 KNHC 091454 TCDEP1 Tropical Storm Andres Discussion Number 2 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP012021 900 AM MDT Sun May 09 2021 Although the system lacks well-defined convective banding features, Dvorak intensity estimates from both TAFB and SAB are 35 kt. This is consistent with a data T-number based on a shear pattern with the low-level center displaced within 3/4 degrees to the west of the edge of the main area of deep convection, as suggested by recent microwave imagery. Since earlier scatterometer data indicated that the system was close to tropical storm strength, and given the latest Dvorak analyses, the cyclone is being named. Andres is the earliest tropical storm on record in the eastern North Pacific basin, just beating out Adrian of 2017. Increasing southwesterly to westerly shear and drier air to the west of the cyclone should prevent any significant additional strengthening. The official forecast generally follows the numerical guidance and shows the system degenerating into a remnant low in 48 hours, as in the previous advisory. The initial motion is slowly northwestward, or 325/5. Andres should move along the southwestern side of a low- to mid-level ridge for the next couple of days and turn westward in the low-level flow as an increasingly shallow circulation. The official track forecast is on the southern side of the model guidance suite. This also close to the latest latest corrected consensus, or HCCA, track. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 09/1500Z 14.1N 107.9W 35 KT 40 MPH 12H 10/0000Z 14.8N 108.4W 35 KT 40 MPH 24H 10/1200Z 15.4N 108.9W 35 KT 40 MPH 36H 11/0000Z 15.9N 109.5W 30 KT 35 MPH 48H 11/1200Z 16.2N 110.2W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 60H 12/0000Z 16.5N 111.2W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 72H 12/1200Z 16.4N 112.5W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 96H 13/1200Z 16.3N 115.2W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 120H 14/1200Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Pasch
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