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Tropical Storm Arthur Forecast Advisory Number 2
2020-05-17 05:12:00| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 0300 UTC SUN MAY 17 2020 000 WTNT21 KNHC 170311 CCA TCMAT1 TROPICAL STORM ARTHUR FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 2...CORRECTED NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL012020 0300 UTC SUN MAY 17 2020 CORRECTED 12-HOUR 34-KT WIND RADII CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY... NONE. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT... A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR... * SURF CITY TO DUCK NC * PAMLICO AND ALBEMARLE SOUNDS A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 48 HOURS. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING COULD BE REQUIRED FOR PORTIONS OF THE WATCH AREA BY SUNDAY MORNING. TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 29.4N 77.7W AT 17/0300Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHEAST OR 30 DEGREES AT 11 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1006 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 35 KT WITH GUSTS TO 45 KT. 34 KT....... 70NE 70SE 0SW 0NW. 12 FT SEAS..150NE 0SE 0SW 150NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 29.4N 77.7W AT 17/0300Z AT 17/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 28.9N 77.9W FORECAST VALID 17/1200Z 30.5N 77.2W MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 70NE 70SE 0SW 0NW. FORECAST VALID 18/0000Z 32.2N 76.4W MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT... 70NE 60SE 0SW 0NW. FORECAST VALID 18/1200Z 34.1N 75.2W MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. 34 KT... 80NE 70SE 30SW 50NW. FORECAST VALID 19/0000Z 36.2N 73.0W MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. 34 KT... 90NE 80SE 50SW 50NW. FORECAST VALID 19/1200Z 37.5N 70.6W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. 50 KT... 40NE 30SE 0SW 0NW. 34 KT...120NE 100SE 70SW 90NW. FORECAST VALID 20/0000Z 38.0N 69.1W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. 50 KT... 50NE 30SE 0SW 0NW. 34 KT...180NE 180SE 90SW 120NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 21/0000Z 38.0N 67.6W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 22/0000Z...DISSIPATED REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 29.4N 77.7W INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT31 KNHC/MIATCPAT1...AT 17/0600Z NEXT ADVISORY AT 17/0900Z $$ FORECASTER STEWART
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