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Tropical Storm Arthur Forecast Discussion Number 11
2020-05-19 10:31:20| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 500 AM EDT Tue May 19 2020 000 WTNT41 KNHC 190831 TCDAT1 Tropical Storm Arthur Discussion Number 11 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL012020 500 AM EDT Tue May 19 2020 Arthur's cloud pattern has continued to take on a generally post-tropical appearance, though a recent convective burst near its center suggests that it isn't quite post-tropical yet. Satellite imagery and earlier scatterometer data also indicate the presence of a developing warm front near the cyclone's center, and this could be contributing the the development of the aforementioned convective burst. ASCAT-C data that arrived early this morning showed maximum winds of 45-50 kt, and this was the primary basis for the initial intensity. Virtually no change was made to the intensity forecast. Despite the recent increase of convection near Arthur's center, extratropical transition should finish fairly soon. Slight strengthening due to baroclinic forcing is possible through the afternoon, but the cyclone is forecast to begin spinning down by tonight or Wednesday morning. The global and regional models indicate that the system will dissipate within about 72 h, and this is reflected in the official forecast. Only small adjustments were made to the track forecast, which remains near the multi-model consensus. As Arthur weakens it should be steered generally southward around the east side of a low-level ridge. The models differ on how quickly the southward turn will occur, but all agree on that general scenario. The latest NHC forecast is a little west of the previous one after 24 h. Dangerous coastal surf conditions and rip currents are expected to continue along portions of the mid-Atlantic and southeast U.S. coasts during the next couple of days. See products from your local National Weather Service Forecast Office for more details. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 19/0900Z 37.0N 70.6W 50 KT 60 MPH 12H 19/1800Z 36.9N 68.7W 55 KT 65 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 24H 20/0600Z 36.1N 66.7W 50 KT 60 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 36H 20/1800Z 34.6N 65.7W 40 KT 45 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 48H 21/0600Z 33.3N 65.2W 35 KT 40 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 60H 21/1800Z 32.0N 65.0W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 72H 22/0600Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Zelinsky
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