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Tropical Storm BARRY Forecast Discussion Number 11
2013-06-20 04:38:41| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 1000 PM CDT WED JUN 19 2013 000 WTNT42 KNHC 200238 TCDAT2 TROPICAL STORM BARRY DISCUSSION NUMBER 11 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL022013 1000 PM CDT WED JUN 19 2013 THE CENTER OF BARRY HAS BEEN VERY DIFFICULT TO LOCATE THIS EVENING. LATE AFTERNOON VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGES AND EXTRAPOLATION FROM THE EARLIER ARICRAFT FIXES SUGGEST THAT THE CENTER IS LOCATED NEAR THE SOUTHERN EDGE OF A BURST OF CONVECTION THAT DEVELOPED AROUND 0000 UTC. THE INITIAL INTENSITY WAS INCREASED TO 40 KT ON THE 0000 UTC INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY...AND WAS BASED ON THE EARLIER AIRCRAFT DATA AND A 33-KT SUSTAINED WIND OBSERVATION AT SACRIFICE ISLAND...WHICH AT THE TIME...WAS STILL LOCATED WELL WEST OF THE CENTER AND STRONGEST WINDS. A FEW OTHER OBSERVING SITES IN THE STATE OF VERACRUZ HAVE REPORTED WIND GUSTS IN THE 32 TO 38 KT RANGE SINCE THIS AFTERNOON. BARRY APPEARS TO BE MOVING SLOWLY WESTWARD OR 270 DEGREES AT 5 KT. THE CYCLONE IS BEING STEERED BY A NARROW RIDGE OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO...AND A SLOW WESTWARD MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH LANDFALL. SOME SLIGHT STRENGTHENING IS POSSIBLE BEFORE THE CENTER MOVES INLAND THURSDAY MORNING. AFTER LANDFALL WEAKENING WILL OCCUR...AND THE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO DISSIPATE OVER THE MOUNTAINS OF SOUTHERN MEXICO IN A DAY OR SO. THE MAIN HAZARD ASSOCIATED WITH BARRY WILL BE HEAVY RAINFALL THAT COULD CAUSE SIGNIFICANT FLOODING AND MUD SLIDES OVER A LARGE PORTION OF SOUTHERN MEXICO. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 20/0300Z 19.6N 95.8W 40 KT 45 MPH 12H 20/1200Z 19.6N 96.5W 40 KT 45 MPH...INLAND 24H 21/0000Z 19.5N 97.5W 25 KT 30 MPH...INLAND 36H 21/1200Z 19.5N 98.4W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 48H 22/0000Z...DISSIPATED $$ FORECASTER BROWN
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