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Tropical Storm BLAS Forecast Discussion Number 2
2016-07-03 10:59:06| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 300 AM MDT SUN JUL 03 2016 000 WTPZ43 KNHC 030858 TCDEP3 TROPICAL STORM BLAS DISCUSSION NUMBER 2 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP032016 300 AM MDT SUN JUL 03 2016 Conventional and microwave satellite imagery indicate that a long curved band of convection now wraps at least half way around the low-level center. Dvorak satellite intensity estimates have increased as result, with TAFB coming in at T2.5/35 kt and SAB at T3.0/45 kt. Therefore, the depression has been upgraded to Tropical Storm Blas. The initial motion estimate is 285/12, based heavily on microwave fix positions. Overall, there is no significant change to the previous forecast track or reasoning. Blas is expected to move along the southwestern periphery of a deep-layer subtropical ridge located over northern Mexico and the southern United States. This stable steering pattern should keep Blas moving in a general westward to west-northwestward direction for the next 120 hours. The NHC track forecast is slightly north of the previous forecast track, and closely follows the consensus track model TVCE. Environmental conditions appear favorable for steady strengthening during the next 72 hours as Blas moves over SSTs of 29-30C and encounters decreasing vertical wind shear of less than 10 kt. The new NHC intensity forecast shows Blas becoming a hurricane on Monday and a major hurricane by Wednesday. Gradual weakening is expected to begin by 96 hours or so as the cyclone starts to move over 26C or cooler seas-surface temperatures, which should result in some cold upwelling or mixing beneath Blas. The official forecast is above the intensity consensus IVCN, and close to the previous intensity forecast and a blend of the SHIPS and LGEM models. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 03/0900Z 11.7N 109.7W 35 KT 40 MPH 12H 03/1800Z 12.0N 111.0W 45 KT 50 MPH 24H 04/0600Z 12.6N 113.1W 55 KT 65 MPH 36H 04/1800Z 13.1N 115.3W 65 KT 75 MPH 48H 05/0600Z 13.6N 117.5W 80 KT 90 MPH 72H 06/0600Z 14.6N 122.1W 100 KT 115 MPH 96H 07/0600Z 15.8N 126.4W 95 KT 110 MPH 120H 08/0600Z 17.3N 130.1W 80 KT 90 MPH $$ Forecaster Stewart
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