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Tropical Storm BLAS Forecast Discussion Number 26
2016-07-09 10:34:17| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 200 AM PDT SAT JUL 09 2016 000 WTPZ43 KNHC 090834 TCDEP3 TROPICAL STORM BLAS DISCUSSION NUMBER 26 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP032016 200 AM PDT SAT JUL 09 2016 Blas continues to gradually weaken due to cool SSTs and increasing shear. Microwave imagery indicates that the low-level center is displaced 20 to 30 miles to the south of the mid-level center apparent in geostationary imagery. Dvorak classifications were T4.0/65 kt from TAFB and T3.5/55 kt from SAB, and the initial intensity is lowered to 60 kt based on a blend of these data. Quick weakening is forecast to continue while Blas moves over SSTs below 24C and southwesterly shear increases. Blas is forecast to become a remnant low in 36 hours and dissipate by day 5, and the new NHC intensity forecast is close to the latest IVCN intensity consensus. The above-mentioned microwave imagery showed that the low-level center was located a little south of previous estimates, and the adjusted best track yields an initial motion estimate of 310/08. The track forecast reasoning remains unchanged, as Blas should continue west-northwestward for the next 24 hours and then turn westward and eventually west-southwestward as the remnant low is steered by the low-level trade wind flow. The new NHC track is a little south of the previous through 36 hours given the initial position adjustment, and is close to the previous advisory after that time. This forecast is close to the multi-model consensus through much of the period. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 09/0900Z 19.5N 131.7W 60 KT 70 MPH 12H 09/1800Z 20.5N 132.9W 50 KT 60 MPH 24H 10/0600Z 21.3N 134.5W 40 KT 45 MPH 36H 10/1800Z 21.6N 136.5W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 48H 11/0600Z 21.5N 138.6W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 72H 12/0600Z 21.0N 143.0W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 96H 13/0600Z 20.0N 147.5W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 120H 14/0600Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Brennan
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