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Tropical Storm BLAS Forecast Discussion Number 27
2016-07-09 16:49:23| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 800 AM PDT SAT JUL 09 2016 000 WTPZ43 KNHC 091449 TCDEP3 TROPICAL STORM BLAS DISCUSSION NUMBER 27 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP032016 800 AM PDT SAT JUL 09 2016 Satellite images indicate that Blas continues to weaken. The associated deep convection has been shrinking in coverage and gradually losing organization during the last several hours. Accordingly, the Dvorak T-numbers are falling and a blend of the latest estimates from TAFB, SAB, and automated values from CIMSS at the University of Wisconsin suggest that the initial intensity has decreased to near 50 kt. Blas is currently over cool 24 C waters and embedded in a fairly stable air mass. These unfavorable conditions combined with a notable increase in southwesterly wind shear during the next couple of days should allow the weakening trend to continue. Blas is forecast to degenerate into a remnant low in 24 to 36 hours and dissipate in 4 to 5 days. The tropical storm is moving northwestward at about 9 kt located on the southwestern periphery of a mid-level ridge centered over northwestern Mexico. A gradual turn to the west is expected over the next day or two while the cyclone becomes shallower and is steered by the low-level trade wind flow. The NHC track forecast is largely an update of the previous one and lies closest to the consensus of the GFS and ECMWF models. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 09/1500Z 20.1N 132.5W 50 KT 60 MPH 12H 10/0000Z 20.8N 133.7W 40 KT 45 MPH 24H 10/1200Z 21.3N 135.5W 35 KT 40 MPH 36H 11/0000Z 21.5N 137.4W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 48H 11/1200Z 21.2N 139.6W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 72H 12/1200Z 20.5N 144.1W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 96H 13/1200Z 19.8N 148.4W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 120H 14/1200Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Cangialosi
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