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Tropical Storm BLAS Forecast Discussion Number 6
2016-07-04 10:54:14| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 300 AM MDT MON JUL 04 2016 000 WTPZ43 KNHC 040854 TCDEP3 TROPICAL STORM BLAS DISCUSSION NUMBER 6 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP032016 300 AM MDT MON JUL 04 2016 During the past few hours, the satellite appearance of Blas has changed from consisting of primarily a long curved band to a large central dense overcast (CDO) feature. Recent AMSU data showed that a nearly closed mid-level eye feature with a diameter of about 35 nmi has also developed within the southwestern portion of the CDO. A 0420 UTC ASCAT pass revealed surface winds near 50 kt in the northeastern quadrant and a radius of maximum winds of about 30 nmi. UW-CIMSS ADT estimates were near 55 kt. These data support an intensity of 55 kt at 0600 UTC. However, since that time the satellite signature has improved, so the advisory intensity has been increased to 60 kt. The initial motion estimate remains a steady 285/10 kt. There is no significant change to the previous forecast reasoning and the latest NHC model guidance suite remains tightly packed. Therefore, the new forecast track is essentially just an update of the previous advisory track due to the subtropical ridge to the north of Blas remaining strong throughout the entire forecast period. The new NHC forecast closely follows the consensus model TVCE and basically lies down the middle of the guidance envelope. The atmospheric and oceanic environment is expected to be quite favorable for Blas to strengthen during the next 48-60 hours. Since the global models are forecasting Blas' outflow pattern to gradually expand and become more symmetrical, along with the development of both poleward and equator outflow channels, a period of rapid intensification is expected for at least the next 24 hours. Blas is expected to achieve its peak intensity around 48 hours or so when the vertical wind shear is forecast to be low at around 5 kt. After that, gradual weakening should begin by 72 hours when Blas will be moving over sub-26C SSTs, creating cold upwelling/mixing beneath the cyclone. The NHC intensity forecast is well above the consensus model IVCN, and closely follows the LGEM statistical-dynamical intensity model. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 04/0900Z 12.7N 113.2W 60 KT 70 MPH 12H 04/1800Z 13.2N 114.8W 70 KT 80 MPH 24H 05/0600Z 13.8N 117.4W 85 KT 100 MPH 36H 05/1800Z 14.2N 119.8W 95 KT 110 MPH 48H 06/0600Z 14.8N 122.1W 105 KT 120 MPH 72H 07/0600Z 16.1N 126.5W 100 KT 115 MPH 96H 08/0600Z 17.5N 130.3W 80 KT 90 MPH 120H 09/0600Z 19.4N 133.6W 55 KT 65 MPH $$ Forecaster Stewart
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