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Tropical Storm Bertha Forecast Discussion Number 1
2020-05-27 14:09:08| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 830 AM EDT Wed May 27 2020 000 WTNT42 KNHC 271209 TCDAT2 Tropical Storm Bertha Special Discussion Number 1 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL022020 830 AM EDT Wed May 27 2020 The area of disturbed weather that NHC has been tracking over the past day or so has quickly become better organized this morning. The circulation has become better defined and the center has reformed beneath the area of deep convection just offshore of the coast of South Carolina. Recent NWS Doppler radar data from Charleston and buoy data indicates that the system is producing tropical-storm-force winds. Therefore, advisories are being initiated on Tropical Storm Bertha. The system will be moving inland very shortly and little, if any, additional strengthening is expected. Once inland, the small tropical cyclone should weaken rapidly and dissipated over central North Carolina on Thursday. There is very little continuity on the initial motion since the center has only recently formed. The best estimate of the initial motion is 320/8 kt. The system should continue to move generally northwestward around the western side of a mid-level ridge located over the western Atlantic. The track guidance is in good agreement on this scenario, and the NHC track forecast is close to a blend of the GFS and ECMWF models. Key Messages: 1. Bertha is expected to produce heavy rainfall across portions of eastern and central South Carolina, west-central to far southeastern North Carolina, and southwest Virginia. This rainfall may produce life-threatening flash flooding. 2. Bertha is expected to bring tropical storm winds to portions of the South Carolina coast within the warning area in the next few hours. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 27/1230Z 32.7N 79.4W 40 KT 45 MPH 12H 27/1800Z 33.2N 80.0W 30 KT 35 MPH...INLAND 24H 28/0600Z 35.8N 81.0W 20 KT 25 MPH...INLAND 36H 28/1800Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Brennan/Brown
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