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Tropical Storm Bertha Forecast Discussion Number 2
2020-05-27 16:32:40| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 1100 AM EDT Wed May 27 2020 000 WTNT42 KNHC 271432 TCDAT2 Tropical Storm Bertha Discussion Number 2 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL022020 1100 AM EDT Wed May 27 2020 The circulation of Bertha remained compact yet well-defined through landfall, which occurred around 930 AM EDT near Mount Pleasant, South Carolina. Buoy data around that time indicated that maximum sustained winds had increased to around 45 kt. Although the center has moved inland, a strong rain band with onshore flow continues to slowly migrate northward along the South Carolina coast. Therefore it is anticipated that tropical-storm-force winds will remain possible in the warning area over the next few hours. Bertha is expected to weaken to a tropical depression later today, then weaken to a remnant low tonight as the center moves farther inland. Model guidance is in good agreement on taking the weakening cyclone north to north-northwestward through tonight, followed by a turn to the north-northeast along with an increase in forward speed later on Thursday. This official track is only slightly east of the previous one and is near the multi-model consensus. Key Messages: 1. Bertha may produce life-threatening flash flooding across portions of eastern to central South Carolina into west central to far southeast North Carolina and Southwest Virginia. Ongoing river flooding will be aggravated and recessions prolonged in the region. 2. Bertha is expected to continue to bring tropical storm winds to portions of the South Carolina coast within the warning area over next few hours. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 27/1500Z 33.3N 79.5W 45 KT 50 MPH 12H 28/0000Z 35.2N 80.0W 30 KT 35 MPH...INLAND 24H 28/1200Z 38.8N 79.9W 20 KT 25 MPH...INLAND 36H 29/0000Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Latto/Beven [ more ]
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