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Tropical Storm Beryl Forecast Discussion Number 4
2024-06-29 16:47:35| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 1100 AM AST Sat Jun 29 2024 504 WTNT42 KNHC 291447 TCDAT2 Tropical Storm Beryl Discussion Number 4 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL022024 1100 AM AST Sat Jun 29 2024 Satellite images indicate that Beryl has been strengthening at a quick pace. The storm is now more symmetric with the low-level center located beneath an expanding central dense overcast feature. Showers and thunderstorms are also organized in curved bands on the west side of the circulation. The initial intensity is increased to 55 kt, in agreement with the Dvorak estimate from TAFB, and Beryl is nearing hurricane strength. Beryl has been wobbling around, but the general motion has been westward at a fast 20 kt. A strong subtropical ridge should keep the storm moving generally westward at only a slightly slower forward speed for the next few days. This motion should take Beryl across the Windward Islands late Sunday night and Monday, and then across the eastern and central Caribbean Sea early next week. By the middle of next week, the cyclone might gain a little more latitude as it feels some influence from a weakness in the ridge, before another ridge builds to its northwest. The NHC track forecast has been nudged southward based on the trends in the latest model runs. The storm has been on a steady strengthening trend since it formed yesterday, and now that its structure is more symmetric and compact, it likely will have an opportunity to rapidly intensify given the low wind shear conditions. The new NHC intensity forecast explicitly calls for rapid strengthening and shows Beryl becoming a major hurricane before moving across the Windward Islands. The environment becomes a little less conducive after Beryl moves into the Caribbean Sea, and some increase in shear will likely end its strengthening phase and cause slow weakening toward the end of the period. This forecast shows more aggressive strengthening in the short term and a slightly higher peak intensity than the previous one, and is near the middle of the guidance envelope. Key Messages: 1. Beryl is expected to rapidly strengthen and be a major hurricane when it reaches the Windward Islands late Sunday night or Monday, bringing destructive hurricane-force winds and life-threatening storm surge. A Hurricane Watch is in effect for much of the Windward Islands. 2. Heavy rainfall and localized flooding is expected across the Windward Islands Sunday night and Monday. 3. Interests in the central and western Caribbean should monitor the progress of this system. Users are reminded that there is large uncertainty at days 4 and 5 and to not focus on the specific details of the track or intensity forecast. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 29/1500Z 10.0N 47.8W 55 KT 65 MPH 12H 30/0000Z 10.4N 50.5W 70 KT 80 MPH 24H 30/1200Z 11.1N 53.8W 85 KT 100 MPH 36H 01/0000Z 11.8N 57.3W 95 KT 110 MPH 48H 01/1200Z 12.6N 60.8W 100 KT 115 MPH 60H 02/0000Z 13.7N 64.3W 100 KT 115 MPH 72H 02/1200Z 14.9N 68.3W 100 KT 115 MPH 96H 03/1200Z 17.0N 75.5W 90 KT 105 MPH 120H 04/1200Z 18.7N 81.4W 80 KT 90 MPH $$ Forecaster Cangialosi
Category:Transportation and Logistics
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Tropical Storm Beryl Wind Speed Probabilities Number 4
2024-06-29 16:47:11| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 1500 UTC SAT JUN 29 2024 478 FONT12 KNHC 291446 PWSAT2 TROPICAL STORM BERYL WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 4 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL022024 1500 UTC SAT JUN 29 2024 AT 1500Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM BERYL WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 10.0 NORTH...LONGITUDE 47.8 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 55 KTS...65 MPH...100 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME EASTERN DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME CENTRAL DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 12Z SAT AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 12Z SAT 00Z SUN 12Z SUN 00Z MON 12Z MON 12Z TUE 12Z WED PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 00Z SUN 12Z SUN 00Z MON 12Z MON 12Z TUE 12Z WED 12Z THU FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT MARATHON FL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) KEY WEST FL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) COZUMEL MX 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 8( 8) COZUMEL MX 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) BELIZE CITY 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) GUANAJA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 6( 6) GUANAJA 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) GUANAJA 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) SAN ANDRES 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) PT GALLINAS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 10(13) 1(14) PT GALLINAS 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 6( 6) X( 6) PT GALLINAS 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) X( 2) CURACAO 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 13(13) 5(18) 1(19) CURACAO 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) 2( 7) X( 7) CURACAO 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) ANDROS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) GREAT EXUMA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) MAYAGUANA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) X( 3) GRAND TURK 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) X( 5) CP SAN ANTONIO 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 10(10) CP SAN ANTONIO 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) CP SAN ANTONIO 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) HAVANA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) ISLE OF PINES 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 16(17) ISLE OF PINES 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) ISLE OF PINES 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) CIENFUEGOS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 13(15) CIENFUEGOS 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) CIENFUEGOS 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) CAMAGUEY 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 9(11) GUANTANAMO BAY 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 10(10) 4(14) GUANTANAMO BAY 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) GRAND CAYMAN 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 31(33) GRAND CAYMAN 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 13(14) GRAND CAYMAN 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 6( 6) MONTEGO BAY 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 21(21) 27(48) MONTEGO BAY 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 7( 7) 14(21) MONTEGO BAY 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 5( 7) KINGSTON 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 31(31) 21(52) KINGSTON 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 12(12) 14(26) KINGSTON 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) 7(12) LES CAYES 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 26(26) 3(29) LES CAYES 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 9( 9) 2(11) LES CAYES 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 1( 4) PORT-AU-PRINCE 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 32(33) 2(35) PORT-AU-PRINCE 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 12(12) X(12) PORT-AU-PRINCE 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) X( 4) CAPE BEATA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 7( 7) 39(46) 1(47) CAPE BEATA 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 18(19) 1(20) CAPE BEATA 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 10(10) X(10) PUERTO PLATA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 12(13) 1(14) SANTO DOMINGO 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 9( 9) 17(26) X(26) SANTO DOMINGO 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 6( 7) X( 7) SANTO DOMINGO 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) X( 2) PONCE PR 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 16(16) 3(19) X(19) PONCE PR 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) PONCE PR 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) X( 1) AGUADILLA PR 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 13(13) 4(17) X(17) SAN JUAN PR 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) 1( 6) X( 6) VIEQUES PR 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 12(12) 1(13) X(13) SAINT THOMAS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 9( 9) X( 9) X( 9) SAINT CROIX 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 13(13) 1(14) X(14) SAINT MAARTEN 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 6( 7) X( 7) X( 7) SABA 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 9(10) X(10) X(10) ST EUSTATIUS 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 9(10) X(10) X(10) ST KITTS-NEVIS 34 X X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 8(10) X(10) X(10) BARBUDA 34 X X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 5( 7) X( 7) X( 7) ANTIGUA 34 X X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 3( 5) X( 5) X( 5) GUADELOUPE 34 X X( X) X( X) 5( 5) 9(14) X(14) X(14) AVES 34 X X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 37(41) X(41) X(41) AVES 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 12(12) X(12) X(12) AVES 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) X( 5) X( 5) DOMINICA 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 12(13) 15(28) X(28) X(28) DOMINICA 50 X X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 5( 7) X( 7) X( 7) DOMINICA 64 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) X( 2) X( 2) MARTINIQUE 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 14(15) 9(24) X(24) X(24) MARTINIQUE 50 X X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 5( 9) X( 9) X( 9) MARTINIQUE 64 X X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 2( 4) X( 4) X( 4) SAINT LUCIA 34 X X( X) 3( 3) 52(55) 15(70) X(70) X(70) SAINT LUCIA 50 X X( X) X( X) 22(22) 14(36) X(36) X(36) SAINT LUCIA 64 X X( X) X( X) 10(10) 8(18) X(18) X(18) SAINT VINCENT 34 X X( X) 3( 3) 62(65) 18(83) X(83) X(83) SAINT VINCENT 50 X X( X) X( X) 37(37) 20(57) X(57) X(57) SAINT VINCENT 64 X X( X) X( X) 20(20) 17(37) X(37) X(37) BARBADOS 34 X X( X) 10(10) 68(78) 1(79) X(79) X(79) BARBADOS 50 X X( X) 2( 2) 42(44) 1(45) X(45) X(45) BARBADOS 64 X X( X) 1( 1) 24(25) 1(26) X(26) X(26) GRENADA 34 X X( X) 2( 2) 39(41) 18(59) X(59) X(59) GRENADA 50 X X( X) X( X) 20(20) 19(39) X(39) X(39) GRENADA 64 X X( X) X( X) 8( 8) 14(22) X(22) X(22) TRINIDADTOBAGO 34 X X( X) 3( 3) 31(34) 4(38) X(38) X(38) TRINIDADTOBAGO 50 X X( X) X( X) 18(18) 4(22) X(22) X(22) TRINIDADTOBAGO 64 X X( X) X( X) 9( 9) 4(13) X(13) X(13) PORT OF SPAIN 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 7( 8) 4(12) X(12) X(12) PORT OF SPAIN 50 X X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 2( 4) X( 4) X( 4) PORT OF SPAIN 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) X( 1) JUANGRIEGO 34 X X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 12(15) X(15) 1(16) JUANGRIEGO 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 6( 6) X( 6) X( 6) JUANGRIEGO 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) X( 3) X( 3) $$ FORECASTER CANGIALOSI
Category: Transportation and Logistics
Summary for Tropical Storm Beryl (AT2/AL022024)
2024-06-29 16:46:39| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
...BERYL EXPECTED TO BECOME A DANGEROUS MAJOR HURRICANE BEFORE REACHING THE WINDWARD ISLANDS... ...HURRICANE WATCHES ISSUED... As of 11:00 AM AST Sat Jun 29 the center of Beryl was located near 10.0, -47.8 with movement W at 23 mph. The minimum central pressure was 998 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 65 mph.
Category: Transportation and Logistics