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Tropical Storm Boris Forecast Discussion Number 6
2020-06-25 22:52:49| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 1100 AM HST Thu Jun 25 2020 000 WTPZ43 KNHC 252052 TCDEP3 Tropical Storm Boris Discussion Number 6 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP032020 1100 AM HST Thu Jun 25 2020 Convection has increased further in association with the tropical cyclone, with the center now under a poorly-organized band or dense overcast. A just-received ASCAT-A overpass indicates that 35-kt winds are occurring over an area about 40 n mi from the center in the southeastern semicircle and based on this, the depression is upgraded to Tropical Storm Boris. While conditions appear to be favorable for some additional strengthening for the next 12 h or so, none of the intensity guidance forecasts significant intensification during that time. Thus, the intensity forecast holds the intensity at 35 kt through 12 h. After that time, increasing vertical wind shear and dry air entrainment should cause Boris to weaken, leading to the system degenerating to a remnant low by 60 h and dissipating completely after 72 h. The new intensity forecast has been adjusted downward, but it still is a little above the intensity consensus. The initial motion is now west-northwestward or 285/8. This motion should continue for the next 24 h or so as Boris moves along the south side of a low- to mid-level ridge. After that, a turn toward the west and west-southwest is forecast as the cyclone weakens and the low-level trade winds become the dominant steering mechanism. The new forecast track has only minor changes from the previous forecast, and it again lies the near consensus models. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 25/2100Z 11.2N 137.1W 35 KT 40 MPH 12H 26/0600Z 11.5N 138.0W 35 KT 40 MPH 24H 26/1800Z 11.9N 139.1W 30 KT 35 MPH 36H 27/0600Z 12.2N 140.3W 30 KT 35 MPH 48H 27/1800Z 12.3N 141.6W 25 KT 30 MPH 60H 28/0600Z 12.2N 143.3W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 72H 28/1800Z 12.0N 145.5W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 96H 29/1800Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Beven
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