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Tropical Storm Bud Forecast Discussion Number 17
2018-06-13 22:35:05| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 300 PM MDT Wed Jun 13 2018 000 WTPZ43 KNHC 132034 TCDEP3 Tropical Storm Bud Discussion Number 17 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP032018 300 PM MDT Wed Jun 13 2018 Bud has continued to steadily weaken as deep convection has been non-existent in the inner-core region for more than 6 hours now. A couple of recent ASCAT overpasses indicated a few 42-kt wind vectors in the northeastern quadrant. Even allowing for some undersampling of the small wind field, those data only support winds of about 45 kt, and that is the intensity used for this advisory. Bud has been moving in a steadier north-northwestward motion of about 345/05 kt over the past 6 h. The blocking ridge to the north of Bud is beginning to weaken and shift slowly eastward. This trend is expected to continue through the remainder of the forecast period as a mid-/upper-level trough approaches Baja California from the northwest. Southerly flow between the ridge and the approaching trough will gradually increase and induce a northward component of motion by Thursday, followed by a gradual turn toward the north-northeast and northeast on Friday. The latest NHC model guidance remains tightly packed about the previous few forecast tracks, so significant changes were required on this advisory package. Bud will be moving over sub-26C SSTs within the next 6 hours or so, which will act to inhibit inner-core convection from redeveloping, resulting in a slow spin down and weakening of the cyclone. However, there will be enough available instability in outer portion of the circulation to help maintain a convective banding structure, which should be sufficient to maintain Bud as a tropical storm until it reaches Baja California in about 36 hours. After that, interaction with the mountainous terrain of Baja California Sur and northwestern Mexico should promote more significant weakening, and Bud is expected to become a remnant low or dissipate shortly after 72 hours when the system is inland over northwestern Mexico. Bud's remnant moisture plume is expected to spread northward and northeastward into northwestern Mexico and the U.S. Desert Southwest over the weekend, resulting in significant rainfall and possible flash flooding across those areas. For further information on the heavy rainfall threat, please see products issued by your local weather service office. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 13/2100Z 19.9N 108.9W 45 KT 50 MPH 12H 14/0600Z 20.7N 109.2W 40 KT 45 MPH 24H 14/1800Z 21.8N 109.6W 35 KT 40 MPH 36H 15/0600Z 23.3N 109.9W 35 KT 40 MPH...INLAND OVER SRN BAJA 48H 15/1800Z 25.6N 109.9W 30 KT 35 MPH...OVER WATER 72H 16/1800Z 31.5N 108.5W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/INLAND 96H 17/1800Z...DISSIPATED INLAND $$ Forecaster Stewart
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