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Tropical Storm Bud Forecast Discussion Number 2
2018-06-10 04:32:49| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 1000 PM CDT Sat Jun 09 2018 000 WTPZ43 KNHC 100232 TCDEP3 Tropical Storm Bud Discussion Number 2 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP032018 1000 PM CDT Sat Jun 09 2018 The cloud pattern has continued to become better organized during the past several hours. Satellite imagery shows several curved bands of deep convection developing around the center while the upper-level outflow is gradually improving. Dvorak T-numbers from all agencies have increased, and a TAFB classification of T2.5 supports upgrading the depression to a tropical storm with 35-kt winds in this advisory. Tropical Storm Bud is expected to be over warm waters and embedded within light shear for the next 3 days or so. These conditions favor strengthening, which could be even more than what is indicated in the NHC forecast given the high RI indices in the SHIPS model. Nevertheless, most of the guidance forecast strengthening, and the official forecast very closely follows the HCCA and FSSE intensity models. Beyond 72 hours, gradual weakening should begin as the cyclone approaches the cold waters near the Baja California peninsula. Bud is moving toward the northwest or 305 degrees at 9 kt. The cyclone is currently steered by the flow around the periphery of a subtropical ridge over the southwestern United States and northern Mexico. However, Bud is expected to reach the western portion of the ridge, and then its core should move toward the northwest and north off the southwestern coast of Mexico and toward the Baja California peninsula. The track guidance is in remarkably good agreement, which significantly increases the confidence in the official forecast. Although Bud is forecast to remain well offshore the southwest coast of Mexico, large swells should begin to affect that portion of the coast during the next few days. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 10/0300Z 12.9N 102.0W 35 KT 40 MPH 12H 10/1200Z 13.8N 103.3W 45 KT 50 MPH 24H 11/0000Z 14.9N 104.8W 55 KT 65 MPH 36H 11/1200Z 15.9N 106.0W 65 KT 75 MPH 48H 12/0000Z 16.7N 107.0W 80 KT 90 MPH 72H 13/0000Z 18.0N 108.3W 80 KT 90 MPH 96H 14/0000Z 19.5N 109.2W 60 KT 70 MPH 120H 15/0000Z 21.5N 110.5W 45 KT 50 MPH $$ Forecaster Avila
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