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Tropical Storm Bud Forecast Discussion Number 3
2018-06-10 10:42:19| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 400 AM CDT Sun Jun 10 2018 000 WTPZ43 KNHC 100842 TCDEP3 Tropical Storm Bud Discussion Number 3 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP032018 400 AM CDT Sun Jun 10 2018 Bud's cloud pattern has continued to become better organized on satellite imagery, with a developing CDO and banding features over the southeastern portions of the circulation. The current intensity is set at 45 kt in agreement with the latest Dvorak estimate from TAFB. There is low shear over the storm and the ocean waters are very warm. These environmental factors should continue to prevail for the next few days and Bud will likely become a hurricane within a day or so. The official intensity forecast is a blend of the simple and corrected consensus numerical guidance. As noted earlier there is a possibility of rapid intensification, especially when Bud develops a well-defined inner core, and subsequent NHC forecasts may need to be adjusted higher. Beyond 72 hours, gradual weakening should begin as the cyclone approaches the cold waters near the Baja California peninsula. The motion continues northwestward and is estimated to be about 310/8 kt. Bud is being steered by the flow on the southwestern periphery of a mid-level high that covers much of Mexico. In the latter part of the forecast period, a gradual turn toward the north-northwest is likely as Bud reaches the western portion of the high. This track would keep the tropical cyclone offshore of mainland Mexico but move it toward the southern portion of the Baja California Peninsula later in the week. It should be noted that there is significant uncertainty in 5-day position and intensity forecasts. Although Bud is forecast to remain well offshore the southwest coast of Mexico, large swells should begin to affect that portion of the coast during the next few days. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 10/0900Z 13.4N 102.6W 45 KT 50 MPH 12H 10/1800Z 14.5N 103.8W 55 KT 65 MPH 24H 11/0600Z 15.8N 105.4W 65 KT 75 MPH 36H 11/1800Z 16.7N 106.5W 75 KT 85 MPH 48H 12/0600Z 17.5N 107.3W 80 KT 90 MPH 72H 13/0600Z 18.7N 108.1W 80 KT 90 MPH 96H 14/0600Z 20.0N 109.0W 60 KT 70 MPH 120H 15/0600Z 22.0N 110.5W 45 KT 50 MPH $$ Forecaster Pasch
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