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Tropical Storm Bud Forecast Discussion Number 4
2018-06-10 16:32:25| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 1000 AM CDT Sun Jun 10 2018 000 WTPZ43 KNHC 101432 TCDEP3 Tropical Storm Bud Discussion Number 4 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP032018 1000 AM CDT Sun Jun 10 2018 Recent microwave imagery indicate that the inner core of Bud is better organized with the presence of a mid-level eye feature. Although Dvorak T-numbers are increasing, none of them support hurricane intensity yet. On this basis, the initial intensity has been adjusted upward to 55 kt in this advisory. The environment is quite favorable for strengthening, and most of the rapid intensification indexes suggest that this process will occur during the next 12 to 24 hours. This seems more likely now that Bud's inner core structure is improving. The official forecast calls for intensification following closely the corrected consensus numerical guidance HCCA. Beyond 72 hours, gradual weakening should begin as the cyclone approaches the cold waters near the Baja California peninsula. The best estimate of the initial motion is toward the northwest or 315 degrees at 8 kt. Bud is being steered by the flow around the periphery of high pressure system over the western United States. In about 3 days, Bud should reach the western edge of the high, and the cyclone should begin to turn toward the north-northwest and then northward. There is high confidence in the track forecast for the next 3 to 4 days since guidance continues to be in quite good agreement. This motion should keep the tropical cyclone offshore of mainland Mexico, but only a small deviation to the right of the track could bring stronger winds to a portion of the coast within the area between Manzanillo and Cabo Corrientes. All interests in that area should closely monitor the progress of Bud. Even if Bud remains well offshore the southwest coast of Mexico, large swells should affect that portion of the coast during the next few days. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 10/1500Z 14.7N 103.5W 55 KT 65 MPH 12H 11/0000Z 15.7N 104.6W 70 KT 80 MPH 24H 11/1200Z 17.0N 106.0W 85 KT 100 MPH 36H 12/0000Z 17.8N 107.0W 95 KT 110 MPH 48H 12/1200Z 18.4N 107.6W 95 KT 110 MPH 72H 13/1200Z 19.5N 108.5W 80 KT 90 MPH 96H 14/1200Z 21.7N 109.8W 60 KT 70 MPH 120H 15/1200Z 24.0N 111.2W 40 KT 45 MPH $$ Forecaster Avila
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