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Tropical Storm CARLOS Forecast Advisory Number 20
2015-06-15 16:39:24| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 1500 UTC MON JUN 15 2015 000 WTPZ23 KNHC 151439 TCMEP3 TROPICAL STORM CARLOS FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 20 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP032015 1500 UTC MON JUN 15 2015 CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY... THE GOVERNMENT OF MEXICO HAS DISCONTINUED THE HURRICANE WARNING EAST OF LAZARO CARDENAS AND HAS REPLACED THE HURRICANE WARNING WITH A TROPICAL STORM WARNING FROM PUNTA SAN TELMO TO LAZARO CARDENAS. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT... A HURRICANE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR... * WEST OF PUNTA SAN TELMO TO PLAYA PERULA A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR... * PUNTA SAN TELMO TO LAZARO CARDENAS INTERESTS ELSEWHERE ALONG THE SOUTHWEST COAST OF MEXICO SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF CARLOS. TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 17.0N 102.5W AT 15/1500Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 15 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 290 DEGREES AT 5 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 988 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 60 KT WITH GUSTS TO 75 KT. 50 KT....... 20NE 10SE 10SW 10NW. 34 KT....... 40NE 30SE 30SW 30NW. 12 FT SEAS.. 45NE 30SE 0SW 60NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 17.0N 102.5W AT 15/1500Z AT 15/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 16.9N 102.3W FORECAST VALID 16/0000Z 17.3N 103.3W MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT. 50 KT... 20NE 10SE 10SW 10NW. 34 KT... 40NE 30SE 30SW 30NW. FORECAST VALID 16/1200Z 17.8N 104.2W MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT. 64 KT... 10NE 0SE 0SW 0NW. 50 KT... 30NE 20SE 10SW 20NW. 34 KT... 60NE 40SE 40SW 40NW. FORECAST VALID 17/0000Z 18.4N 105.0W MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT. 50 KT... 30NE 20SE 10SW 20NW. 34 KT... 60NE 40SE 40SW 40NW. FORECAST VALID 17/1200Z 19.4N 105.6W MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. 50 KT... 20NE 10SE 10SW 10NW. 34 KT... 40NE 30SE 30SW 30NW. FORECAST VALID 18/1200Z 21.2N 106.1W MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 125 NM ON DAY 4 AND 150 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 19/1200Z 22.8N 106.8W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 20/1200Z...DISSIPATED REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 17.0N 102.5W NEXT ADVISORY AT 15/2100Z $$ FORECASTER STEWART
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