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Tropical Storm CARLOS Forecast Discussion Number 19
2015-06-15 10:39:53| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 400 AM CDT MON JUN 15 2015 000 WTPZ43 KNHC 150839 TCDEP3 TROPICAL STORM CARLOS DISCUSSION NUMBER 19 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP032015 400 AM CDT MON JUN 15 2015 Enhanced BD-curve infrared imagery shows that the cloud pattern of Carlos has diminished in size during the past 12 hours. A subsequent 0348 UTC ASCAT-B overpass also indicated a decrease in the overall extent of the tropical-storm-force winds. The subjective or objective T-numbers for this advisory remain unchanged as well as the initial intensity of 60 kt, although this could be generous. The intensity forecast remains quite uncertain, especially since the GFS continues to show Carlos dissipating over water and offshore of Cabo Corrientes, Mexico in less than 72 hours. On the other hand, the statistical-dynamical guidance continue to indicate gradual strengthening through 3 days before leveling off as a category 1 hurricane. The NHC intensity forecast is a compromise of both solutions, showing slight restrengthening to a hurricane in 24 hours. Afterwards, gradual weakening into a depression is expected in 72 hours due to land interaction and an unfavorable thermodynamic environment. Beyond the 72 hour period, the forecast calls for further weakening into a remnant low in 96 hours and dissipation at day 5. It appears as though Carlos is finally feeling the affects of the building mid-tropospheric ridge over central Mexico, and is now moving west-northwestward or 295/5 kt. The cyclone should continue on this track through the 36 hour period. Afterwards, the dynamical models show a weakness developing in the ridge to the north of Carlos which should turn the system more northwestward and toward the coast of Mexico. The official forecast reflects this expected change in the steering pattern. The NHC forecast is again shifted to the left of the previous advisory and is weighed heavily on a blend of the GFS, ECMWF, and the Florida State Superensemble. An Air Force Hurricane Hunter aircraft is scheduled to investigate Carlos later today and should provide a good estimate of the intensity. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 15/0900Z 16.7N 101.8W 60 KT 70 MPH 12H 15/1800Z 17.0N 102.6W 60 KT 70 MPH 24H 16/0600Z 17.4N 103.6W 65 KT 75 MPH 36H 16/1800Z 17.9N 104.5W 60 KT 70 MPH 48H 17/0600Z 18.7N 105.1W 50 KT 60 MPH 72H 18/0600Z 20.7N 105.8W 30 KT 35 MPH 96H 19/0600Z 22.3N 106.4W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 120H 20/0600Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Roberts
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