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Tropical Storm CARLOS Forecast Discussion Number 28
2015-06-17 16:44:11| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 1000 AM CDT WED JUN 17 2015 000 WTPZ43 KNHC 171444 TCDEP3 TROPICAL STORM CARLOS DISCUSSION NUMBER 28 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP032015 1000 AM CDT WED JUN 17 2015 After a brief burst of cold-topped convection early this morning, first-light visible and infrared satellite imagery indicate that the convection has started to wane once again. However, a 0950 UTC AMSU overpass indicated that Carlos has been able to maintain a small but well-defined ring of convection around the center, despite its proximity to the coast of western Mexico. Satellite intensity estimates are coming down quickly and support an intensity of around 40 kt, which was used for this advisory. The initial motion estimate is 330/06 kt. There is no significant change to the previous track or intensity forecast reasonings. Carlos is forecast to move north-northwestward along the coast of Mexico around the southwestern periphery of a weak subtropical ridge and steadily weaken as the cyclone interacts with the rugged terrain of the Sierra Madre del Sur mountain range. Carlos is expected to weaken to a tropical depression by tonight, but that could occur sooner if the center moves onshore the coast of Mexico later this morning, which is what the ECMWF and GFS models are forecasting to happen. The NHC track forecast follows a blend of the FSSE and HWRF models, and the intensity forecast is similar to the LGEM model. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 17/1500Z 19.6N 105.3W 40 KT 45 MPH 12H 18/0000Z 20.3N 105.7W 30 KT 35 MPH...INLAND 24H 18/1200Z 21.0N 106.2W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 36H 19/0000Z 21.6N 106.7W 15 KT 15 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 48H 19/1200Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Stewart
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