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Tropical Storm CARLOS Public Advisory Number 20
2015-06-15 16:39:24| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 1000 AM CDT MON JUN 15 2015 000 WTPZ33 KNHC 151439 TCPEP3 BULLETIN TROPICAL STORM CARLOS ADVISORY NUMBER 20 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP032015 1000 AM CDT MON JUN 15 2015 ...CARLOS JUST OFFSHORE OF THE SOUTH-CENTRAL COAST OF MEXICO... ...AIR FORCE RESERVE HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT EN ROUTE... SUMMARY OF 1000 AM CDT...1500 UTC...INFORMATION ----------------------------------------------- LOCATION...17.0N 102.5W ABOUT 70 MI...115 KM SSW OF LAZARO CARDENAS MEXICO ABOUT 180 MI...295 KM SE OF MANZANILLO MEXICO MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...70 MPH...110 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 290 DEGREES AT 6 MPH...9 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...988 MB...29.18 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: The Government of Mexico has discontinued the Hurricane Warning east of Lazaro Cardenas, and has replaced the Hurricane Warning with a Tropical Storm Warning from Punta San Telmo to Lazaro Cardenas. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Hurricane Watch is in effect for... * West of Punta San Telmo to Playa Perula A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for... * Punta San Telmo to Lazaro Cardenas Interests elsewhere along the southwest coast of Mexico should monitor the progress of Carlos. For storm information specific to your area, please monitor products issued by your national meteorological service. DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK ------------------------------ At 1000 AM CDT (1500 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Carlos was located near latitude 17.0 North, longitude 102.5 West. Carlos is moving toward the west-northwest near 6 mph (9 km/h). This general motion is expected to continue through Tuesday, followed by a turn toward the northwest on Wednesday. On the forecast track, Carlos will move parallel to the southern coast of Mexico over the next day or two. However, only a small deviation to the north of the forecast track would bring the center of Carlos closer to the coast. Maximum sustained winds remain near 70 mph (110 km/h) with higher gusts. A United States Air Force Reserve reconnaissance aircraft is currently en route to provide a better estimate of the cyclone's intensity. Some strengthening is expected during the next 24 hours and Carlos is forecast to become a hurricane again by early Tuesday. Carlos is small cyclone. Tropical-storm-force winds only extend outward up to 45 miles (75 km) from the center. The estimated minimum central pressure is 988 mb (29.18 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- WIND: Tropical Storm conditions are expected within the warning area today. Hurricane conditions are possible within the hurricane watch area by Tuesday morning. RAINFALL: Carlos is expected to produce rains in the Mexican states of Guerrero, Michoacan, Colima, Jalisco and Nayarit, with rainfall accumulations of 6 to 10 inches possible through Wednesday, and maximum totals of 15 inches possible. These rains may produce life- threatening flash floods and mudslides, especially in areas of higher terrain. SURF: Swells associated with Carlos will affect the coasts of southern and southwestern Mexico during the next few days. These swells could cause life-threatening surf and rip currents. Please consult products from your local weather office. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next intermediate advisory at 100 PM CDT. Next complete advisory at 400 PM CDT. $$ Forecaster Stewart
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