je.st
news
Tropical Storm CELIA Forecast Discussion Number 10
2016-07-09 04:35:14| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 900 PM MDT FRI JUL 08 2016 000 WTPZ44 KNHC 090235 TCDEP4 TROPICAL STORM CELIA DISCUSSION NUMBER 10 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP042016 900 PM MDT FRI JUL 08 2016 Visible satellite imagery shows that Celia has an expansive cloud shield, with a compact CDO feature and multiple elongated cloud bands. However, deep convection is disjointed and fairly limited near the low-level center. Dvorak intensity estimates from TAFB and SAB are unchanged from six hours ago, and the CIMSS ADT estimate has actually decreased during that time. Therefore, the initial intensity is left at 40 kt. Celia's center temporarily moved northward earlier today, but the average motion over the past 12 hours is estimated to be northwestward, or 305/8 kt. A subtropical ridge extending westward from northern Mexico should cause Celia to resume a west- northwestward to westward motion but at a faster forward speed through day 3. The cyclone is expected to reach the southwestern periphery of the ridge by day 4, which should cause Celia to turn northwestward by the end of the forecast period. The track model spread is low, especially through day 3, and the NHC track forecast is very close to the various consensus models. This updated forecast is a little north of the previous one during the first 24 hours to account for Celia's recent northward jog. High-resolution microwave SST data indicate that Celia's center is now moving over the coldest portion of Blas's cold wake, which could be contributing to the relative lack of central deep convection. Celia will continue moving over the cold wake for another day or so, and only gradual strengthening is anticipated in the short term. Warmer waters and low shear should allow faster intensification to begin in 36-48 hours, with Celia likely reaching its peak intensity in about 3 days. Cooler waters should then induce a gradual weakening trend on days 4 and 5. In light of the latest guidance, no significant changes were made to the previous NHC intensity forecast. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 09/0300Z 13.7N 114.1W 40 KT 45 MPH 12H 09/1200Z 14.2N 115.8W 45 KT 50 MPH 24H 10/0000Z 14.5N 118.1W 50 KT 60 MPH 36H 10/1200Z 14.6N 120.5W 60 KT 70 MPH 48H 11/0000Z 14.7N 122.9W 75 KT 85 MPH 72H 12/0000Z 15.5N 127.3W 90 KT 105 MPH 96H 13/0000Z 17.0N 131.0W 85 KT 100 MPH 120H 14/0000Z 19.5N 135.0W 70 KT 80 MPH $$ Forecaster Berg
Tags: number
discussion
storm
tropical
Category:Transportation and Logistics
Latest from this category |
All news |
||||||||||||||||||
|
|||||||||||||||||||