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Tropical Storm CELIA Forecast Discussion Number 11
2016-07-09 10:35:48| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 200 AM PDT SAT JUL 09 2016 000 WTPZ44 KNHC 090835 TCDEP4 TROPICAL STORM CELIA DISCUSSION NUMBER 11 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP042016 200 AM PDT SAT JUL 09 2016 The cool wake from Hurricane Blas continues to affect Celia. The convective pattern is quite ragged, with a small CDO feature but little in the way of convective banding. The initial intensity is set to 35 kt based on a blend of the latest subjective and objective Dvorak estimates. Celia should begin moving over warmer waters during the next 12 to 24 hours, which should allow for an increase in convective organization and some strengthening. Celia is forecast to peak in about 72 hours and then move over cooler waters again, which should result in slow weakening late in the period. The new NHC intensity forecast is close to the latest SHIPS model and is a bit above the latest intensity consensus. The initial motion estimate is 290/11, as Celia has accelerated since the previous advisory. A westward motion to the south of a building subtropical ridge is expected to begin later today and continue through 48 hours. After that time, the cyclone should reach the southwestern edge of the ridge and turn west-northwestward at a slightly slower speed. The new NHC track forecast is close to the previous one through 48 hours, but a little faster given the quicker initial motion. At days 3 through 5 the NHC track has been shifted a little to the south of the previous one and lies slightly north of the latest GFS/ECMWF consensus. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 09/0900Z 14.2N 115.8W 35 KT 40 MPH 12H 09/1800Z 14.5N 117.4W 45 KT 50 MPH 24H 10/0600Z 14.7N 119.7W 50 KT 60 MPH 36H 10/1800Z 14.7N 122.2W 60 KT 70 MPH 48H 11/0600Z 14.8N 124.4W 70 KT 80 MPH 72H 12/0600Z 15.7N 128.4W 85 KT 100 MPH 96H 13/0600Z 17.1N 131.9W 80 KT 90 MPH 120H 14/0600Z 19.0N 136.0W 65 KT 75 MPH $$ Forecaster Brennan
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