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Tropical Storm CELIA Forecast Discussion Number 13
2016-07-09 22:41:23| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 200 PM PDT SAT JUL 09 2016 000 WTPZ44 KNHC 092041 TCDEP4 TROPICAL STORM CELIA DISCUSSION NUMBER 13 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP042016 200 PM PDT SAT JUL 09 2016 The cloud pattern of Celia currently features a small central dense overcast with outer bands present in all quadrants except the north. Satellite intensity estimates from TAFB and SAB are now 55 kt, and earlier AMSU estimates from CIMSS and CIRA were also near 55 kt. This value will be the initial intensity. The cyclone currently has good cirrus outflow over the western semicircle. The storm has moved due west for the past few hours. However, the longer-term motion is 275/12. A westward motion south of the subtropical ridge is expected to continue for the next 48 hours or so, followed by a west-northwestward motion as the storm approaches a break in the ridge. There has been little change in the guidance since the previous advisory, and the new forecast track is an update of the previous forecast. The short-term intensity forecast is tricky even though Celia is now moving over increasing sea surface temperatures. The Rapid Intensification Index of the SHIPS model indicates a 50 percent chance of 25-35 kt of strengthening during the next 24 hours, and this is supported by the forecasts of the SHIPS model and the Florida State Superensemble. However, the lack of bands in the northern quadrant suggests that the storm is still struggling with stable air caused by the cold wake of Hurricane Blas, and it is unclear how long this will continue. The intensity forecast is thus conservative in calling for 20 kt of intensification in 24 hours, followed by some additional strengthening to a peak intensity of 90 kt by 48 hours. However, it would not be a surprise for Celia to become a major hurricane. After 48 hours, Celia will gradually move over cooler water which should cause a gradual weakening. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 09/2100Z 14.3N 117.8W 55 KT 65 MPH 12H 10/0600Z 14.4N 119.7W 65 KT 75 MPH 24H 10/1800Z 14.5N 122.0W 75 KT 85 MPH 36H 11/0600Z 14.5N 124.3W 85 KT 100 MPH 48H 11/1800Z 14.8N 126.4W 90 KT 105 MPH 72H 12/1800Z 16.0N 130.0W 85 KT 100 MPH 96H 13/1800Z 18.0N 134.0W 80 KT 90 MPH 120H 14/1800Z 20.0N 138.0W 60 KT 70 MPH $$ Forecaster Beven
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